2 ms·
Let's say a person is faced with Newcomb's Problem every day, and its decision is made public every time. If the person has always taken B, then the Predictor
by miguelrochefort 12y ago
Let's say a person is faced with Newcomb's Problem every day, and its decision is made public every time.
If the person has always taken B, then the Predictor will probably guess that the person will take B again, and therefore place $1,000,000 in B. By always choosing B, the person "wins".
If the person doesn't always take B, then the Predictor probably can't guess what the person will take, and B will be empty. By taking A and B, the person can only get $1,000.
The mechanism of Trust is exactly this. Whenever you're faced with a question, lying (to your advantage) will always increase the odds of a better outcome (like taking both A and B). However, that trick doesn't scale, and you can't use it anymore once a lie is discovered, once trust is lost.