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This might be me being a nitpicker... but how does being able to bet on "Innovation... Software... Things on Screens... Programming Languages" help anyone? Are

This might be me being a nitpicker... but how does being able to bet on "Innovation... Software... Things on Screens... Programming Languages" help anyone? Are these things that were up for debate? The useful things in here are the bold predictions, such as Linux never being a factor on the desktop, and not betting on things like business school and government change. Sorry, had to get that off my chest. I should also clarify that I'm not commenting on the fact that this list was posted in its entirety, just on the list itself. I appreciate it being posted for us to review.

fake_pg 17y ago
Exactly, although the list wasn't posted in its entirety, this "list" serves the readers a great disservice for its lack of context. It's like saying for tomorrow, bet on sunlight, followed by darkness.
tlb 17y ago
Yes, they're up for debate, because at many times in the last 20 years people have had very different opinions on all those topics. People who grew up with the current trends find it hard to see, but read some late-80s business magazine articles for a different perspective. Back then, the trends were B-school, investment banking, investing in lowering production cost, consumer brand marketing, selling razor blades, etc. Few people thought you could make a huge business in software. Many of those trends changed. I think Paul's claim is that the trends he mentions are good long-term bets.
pg 17y ago
Obviously words like "software" and "innovation" are not by themselves very informative, because they're just titles. How do you feel about what I said about these topics?
- tsestrich 17y ago
  I see what you mean, and I haven't been able to find a full text of what was said about each topic. Out of context, I saw each point as an unsubstantiated claim that was part of a single, larger point. There wasn't an indication that each of those had a complete discussion following. If those were points gleaned from a larger discussion of "things to bet on", then I stand by my original statement. However, I'd look forward to seeing what was said in particular if each of those was a specific topic of discussion.

fake_pg 17y ago

Exactly, although the list wasn't posted in its entirety, this "list" serves the readers a great disservice for its lack of context. It's like saying for tomorrow, bet on sunlight, followed by darkness.

tlb 17y ago

Yes, they're up for debate, because at many times in the last 20 years people have had very different opinions on all those topics. People who grew up with the current trends find it hard to see, but read some late-80s business magazine articles for a different perspective. Back then, the trends were B-school, investment banking, investing in lowering production cost, consumer brand marketing, selling razor blades, etc. Few people thought you could make a huge business in software. Many of those trends changed. I think Paul's claim is that the trends he mentions are good long-term bets.

pg 17y ago

Obviously words like "software" and "innovation" are not by themselves very informative, because they're just titles. How do you feel about what I said about these topics?

tsestrich 17y ago
I see what you mean, and I haven't been able to find a full text of what was said about each topic. Out of context, I saw each point as an unsubstantiated claim that was part of a single, larger point. There wasn't an indication that each of those had a complete discussion following. If those were points gleaned from a larger discussion of "things to bet on", then I stand by my original statement. However, I'd look forward to seeing what was said in particular if each of those was a specific topic of discussion.