4 ms·
Stuff doesn't repeat, it rhymes. We may see the economic cycle upturn again, but interest rates might not go along for the ride this time. For example, in the 7
by gfodor 12y ago
Stuff doesn't repeat, it rhymes. We may see the economic cycle upturn again, but interest rates might not go along for the ride this time. For example, in the 70's, stagflation was pretty different that time. Also the balance sheet recession in Japan was also pretty different.
We're riding some major trends in increased productivity that may go exponential, so if that's the case then yes, this time it is very different and the downward pressure on rates from this might put us into a secular deflationary period of a pretty long time. Nobody is saying we'll never see a period of rapid inflation or high interest rates, but merely saying that we may be in a secular period that lasts long enough for that not to matter for anyone alive today.