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>What if we have seen peak energy prices on our lifetime? What if we won’t see long term rates in the US of 10% again in our lifetime? It's predictable that fi
by runako 12y ago
>What if we have seen peak energy prices on our lifetime? What if we won’t see long term rates in the US of 10% again in our lifetime?
It's predictable that financial operators will, at some point during a cycle, begin to wonder if current conditions will persist forever. What's fascinating to me is that smart people have to relearn the lessons from not too far back, as if it's all new material. "The new normal" ended a long time ago for many asset classes.
As a credit to Wilson, he's not cheerleading for the ideas in his post. Nonetheless, the questions he raises mirror the idea that the dollar was dead (Protect your wealth with Bitcoin!) or the earlier idea that real estate prices will only go up. Or that the New Economy wasn't bound by the old rules. The peak oil idea was popular in 2006, and celebrities wanted to get paid in Euros during the crisis.
The global economy is dynamic. Times change. Stuff repeats. This time is not different.
- gfodor 12y agoStuff doesn't repeat, it rhymes. We may see the economic cycle upturn again, but interest rates might not go along for the ride this time. For example, in the 70's, stagflation was pretty different that time. Also the balance sheet recession in Japan was also pretty different. We're riding some major trends in increased productivity that may go exponential, so if that's the case then yes, this time it is very different and the downward pressure on rates from this might put us into a secular deflationary period of a pretty long time. Nobody is saying we'll never see a period of rapid inflation or high interest rates, but merely saying that we may be in a secular period that lasts long enough for that not to matter for anyone alive today.