3 ms·

I agree. It is a handy catch phrase that describes a real phenomenon. I tend to think in terms of variance. Programmer A is 3 standard deviations 'better' than

by RogerL 12y ago

I agree. It is a handy catch phrase that describes a real phenomenon. I tend to think in terms of variance. Programmer A is 3 standard deviations 'better' than programmer B (again, no mathematical rigor implied!!!). Think of it in this way. Most of us are smart people, and learned relativity in high school or college. Those that didn't, could have. It ain't that hard. But how many could have discovered relativity at that time in history? None of us, I suspect. Put it how you want, Einstein is a 10x, he is 6std outside the mean, or whatever. Same sort of things in software in my experience. If you have something really hard to do at work, you know who to give it to, right? You give it to (say) Jessica, who will come back in 3 days not only with it complete, but with all the ambiguities in the spec fixed, with 4 enhancements that you never thought of, documentation, and a framework that lets others in the company extend the functionality into other company products. Or, you could give it to Jacob, who will need to be prodded for status updates week after week, and he'll eventually 'deliver' 10x the number of lines of code (hence just as productive by SLOC estimates!) for a substandard solution that is unreadable and fails on all the edge cases. I call that 10x, without worrying about the math or quantitative part. To anyone that disagrees, why all the hand wringing about hiring? Just hire anyone that crosses your door, they will be fine, right?

vonmoltke 12y ago
The problem is that there may be a domain you can drop Jessica and Jacob into where they become equivalent, or even flip-flop. My problem with the myth is the part that posits there are a bunch of programmers you can drop on anything and have them be more productive than the average. They exist, but they are very rare, just like Einstein-caliber scientists are very rare. In fact, you connected "10X" with "six-sigma"; that is about 4/1,000,000. > To anyone that disagrees, why all the hand wringing about hiring? Just hire anyone that crosses your door, they will be fine, right? I have complained many times in the past about the hand-wringing. I think you are creating a false dichotomy between hiring "10Xers" and hiring anybody. There is a gaping chasm between those positions, and in my opinion the proper place to set your bar depends on a serious assessment of your company and your needs. In this context the demand for "10X" engineers comes off at best as hiring voodoo and at worst as an excuse to not hire anybody like the company principals.
- RogerL 12y ago
  Why is that a problem? Maybe Jacob should be doing enterprise development, or maybe he should be a chef. We aren't saying Jessica is a 10x human, just that she is 10x at the assignments that she has been given, or made on her own. When I assign projects I think about a person's ability. Not just what they know, but what I want them to know in the future, how quickly they might get things done, how much technical debt they will either create or retire, and so on. It's inexact, but roughly, yes, 10x people exist.
  - vonmoltke 12y ago
    So, the problem is this. The myth is about a "10X programmer". No qualification. If you look at hiring discussions, there seem to be a significant number of people in these circles that believe there are programmers who are nearly 10 times as productive as the average (or bottom; this seems to change from poster to poster) at nearly everything they touch. If you don't believe me, read some of the hiring discussions here. Jessica is not a "10X programmer". Jessica is a "10X $TASK programmer", where $TASK may or may not comprise an entire role. $TASK might even be as large as "web dev" or "enterprise dev". It is nearly impossible to screen for, though, unless someone has directly comparable work experience, where directly comparable includes intangibles like work environment.
crdoconnor 12y ago
I find the 10x difference in productivity isn't usually that evident in singular tasks that a reasonable programmer could complete in a day or less. A difference of 2-3x there is more normal, whereas 10x would be exceptional. A long, drawn out project is where real productivity difference will become evident though. Developers who don't mire themselves in technical debt can easily become 10x (or more) productive than those who don't.

by RogerL 12y ago

vonmoltke 12y ago

The problem is that there may be a domain you can drop Jessica and Jacob into where they become equivalent, or even flip-flop. My problem with the myth is the part that posits there are a bunch of programmers you can drop on anything and have them be more productive than the average. They exist, but they are very rare, just like Einstein-caliber scientists are very rare. In fact, you connected "10X" with "six-sigma"; that is about 4/1,000,000. > To anyone that disagrees, why all the hand wringing about hiring? Just hire anyone that crosses your door, they will be fine, right? I have complained many times in the past about the hand-wringing. I think you are creating a false dichotomy between hiring "10Xers" and hiring anybody. There is a gaping chasm between those positions, and in my opinion the proper place to set your bar depends on a serious assessment of your company and your needs. In this context the demand for "10X" engineers comes off at best as hiring voodoo and at worst as an excuse to not hire anybody like the company principals.

RogerL 12y ago
Why is that a problem? Maybe Jacob should be doing enterprise development, or maybe he should be a chef. We aren't saying Jessica is a 10x human, just that she is 10x at the assignments that she has been given, or made on her own. When I assign projects I think about a person's ability. Not just what they know, but what I want them to know in the future, how quickly they might get things done, how much technical debt they will either create or retire, and so on. It's inexact, but roughly, yes, 10x people exist.
- vonmoltke 12y ago
  So, the problem is this. The myth is about a "10X programmer". No qualification. If you look at hiring discussions, there seem to be a significant number of people in these circles that believe there are programmers who are nearly 10 times as productive as the average (or bottom; this seems to change from poster to poster) at nearly everything they touch. If you don't believe me, read some of the hiring discussions here. Jessica is not a "10X programmer". Jessica is a "10X $TASK programmer", where $TASK may or may not comprise an entire role. $TASK might even be as large as "web dev" or "enterprise dev". It is nearly impossible to screen for, though, unless someone has directly comparable work experience, where directly comparable includes intangibles like work environment.

crdoconnor 12y ago

I find the 10x difference in productivity isn't usually that evident in singular tasks that a reasonable programmer could complete in a day or less. A difference of 2-3x there is more normal, whereas 10x would be exceptional. A long, drawn out project is where real productivity difference will become evident though. Developers who don't mire themselves in technical debt can easily become 10x (or more) productive than those who don't.