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Amazon drone delivery WILL happen. This will be completely disruptive to how stuff is consumed. Amazon being able to reach any point in an urban environment fro

Amazon drone delivery WILL happen. This will be completely disruptive to how stuff is consumed. Amazon being able to reach any point in an urban environment from its outskirts, at any time of day, within minutes and at a cost of just cents, will completely change consumption patterns (at least for existing Amazon users). Once something has such a strong financial implication, any other obstacle in its way is going to crumble (not to mention that the technology is mature enough today to perform this; the barrier is regulation, and that can change with enough money at stake).

rplnt 12y ago
I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.
- piyushpr134 12y ago
  You have been droned
- flyinglizard 12y ago
  Dead serious. The technology is there, the economics are there - it just seems outlandish as an idea, but for no real good reason.
  - randomsearch 12y ago
    > it just seems outlandish as an idea, but for no real good reason I imagine safety and power issues, talking to friends who research drone tech.
    - wstrange 12y ago
      And payload. A drone just can't carry any significant weight.
      - deleted 12y ago
        [deleted]
        fl0wenol 12y ago
        Those kind of drones are not the kind of drone that can deliver a package, unless that package can survive a ballistic delivery to the ground. Sure, by shaping the drone into a winged vehicle you can get the payload capacity up and make it move quickly as it goes from waypoint to waypoint on a "delivery route", even in windy conditions. But now you can't deliver the package itself neatly onto the ground adjacent to obstacles like you could with a quadra-copter. If someone can figure out a reusable payload delivery parachute or something like that with the ability to keep itself on course even in windy conditions to hit a drop point on the ground from a couple hundred feet up, and make it work with packaged goods the size of a small book or video game, then it has a chance.
        srdev 12y ago
        Not sure what the deleted post is referencing, but Google is using a fixed-wing design. To deliver the package, you tilt the entire drone up to do VTOL. At this point you can lower the package. In theory, it will work and have higher efficiency than a multicopter design. I'm not sure whether or not Google has had any success with it.
        fl0wenol 12y ago
        That is interesting as hell and I hope it works out; I had a vague sense VTOL wasn't a practical power/weight option for something battery powered.
  - rplnt 12y ago
    The economics are definitely not there yet. The insurance alone would make it prohibitively expensive. Then you need a lot of infrastructure due to low range. Light drones also can't fly when it's too windy, too rainy, too cold. And they can only carry a very small subset of usual shipments (limited size and weight). Automated cars on the other hand...
    - Perdition 12y ago
      I can imagine all the people complaining about how they have been waiting for three hours for an Amazon drone delivery while a hurricane rages on outside.
    - xur17 12y ago
      I see the drones as a last mile delivery solution. Rather than flying the drones all the way from the distribution centers to peoples' houses, they could drive their trucks out to your neighborhood, and then release a set of drones to deliver packages the 'last mile'. This would allow them to deliver a bunch of packages at once without the driver getting out of the truck, and larger packages could still be hand delivered for the time being. Also, I'd imagine that the drones would be (remotely) human driven at least the first few times they drop off a package, so they can learn where to drop off the package (similar to how Google handles training their self driving cars). After that, they could drop it off automatically, but hand off control to a human if the environment looks too different.
      - dman 12y ago
        Howre they going to solve the pet problem? I can see curious cats / dogs trying to have a go at the drones.
    - flinty 12y ago
      also most of northeast will be blocked off for multiple months in winter due to snow accumulation on streets and on people's doors
MCRed 12y ago
It's an idea that is DOA. It will never work because it will never be economical, nor safe. If you think about it for a few minutes, you'll realize it's a joke-- like an April Fools joke.
- minusSeven 12y ago
  do you mean to say drone's are more expensive than people ?
  - practicalpants 12y ago
    Their drones could easily be $30k+ a pop, and if they crash, need maintenance, irretrievably fly out of range, or simply become targets of angry people wanting to break them... all problems frequently encountered with high grade hobbyist drones.... then their value vs. an employee is questionable. Crucially we're not even talking about R&D efforts, insurance, regulatory clearing costs, and probably the biggest cost, legal mishaps - and I mean very serious lawsuits - even toy-like DJI Phantom drones can fall/ crash and kill people. I could see drone delivery to rural areas... but urban areas I don't think it's feasible at all, at least not for a long while.
    - shubb 12y ago
      And anyway, driverless cars are happening. Why do you need a drone when the robo uber taxi had a robot arm in the boot and delivers packages during slow times of day? Drones could be useful for a lot of things but if the problem is delivering heavy packages cheaply to places with road access, they are not a rational choice.
      - CPLX 12y ago
        > And anyway, driverless cars are happening. By "happening" you mean "not used for any real purpose besides research or demonstration anywhere in the world" presumably.
        12y ago
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
jasonsync 12y ago
The urban environment represents the greatest challenge. For starters. "To your door" urban drone delivery would be nearly impossible as most urban dwellers live in condos, apartments or densely populated areas where landing or hovering presents real-world, safety, security and logistical concerns most likely impossible to overcome. The best case urban scenario is Amazon "drop off points". Basically small Amazon stores strategically located throughout a city with designated landing zones for their drones and close proximity to the recipient - so the recipient (or the delivery person) only needs to walk a few blocks max. In this scenario you're still looking at a "real person" to get the package to the door though. "To your door" sub-urban and rural (the outskirts as you call it) in theory may be more doable as dwellings tend to have driveways, yards and space. However the challenges of urban still exist. And landing (hovering) on location, on private property adds greater complexity from a safety and legal perspective. Amazon has an uphill battle to wage with regards to the legality, rules, regulations and safety of operating unmanned air vehicles over "built up areas" in general. Current pending and existing regulations lean towards flightpaths and fly-zones that ensure drones can land safely in the event of an emergency requiring immediate decent (eg. a crash landing). This means flightpaths over built-up areas of cities and towns in general would be extremely expensive (funding, insurance, lobbying) and most likely impossible under today's regulations. No matter how safe they're deemed, drones represent a hazard to persons and property, and as such they'll be highly regulated. Amazon won't be able to fly them anywhere, anytime soon. It will take time. Now, with all that said, a couple years ago the FAA Modernization and Reform Act was signed, providing funding to the Federal Aviation Authority to establish safety rules that deal with all of the above. The funding as I mentioned has already begun ... to the tune of $60 billion or so. We'll see how the FAA strikes a balance between corporate interest and public safety. In the mean time Amazon Drone Delivery is mostly a marketing / PR tactic to generate interest and buzz. Strategic in the sense that, on the surface, it sounds like something the public would like to see. It's exciting! Progress! Get the public on your side and "fast-tracked regulation" becomes much more realistic.
- nknighthb 12y ago
  > For starters. "To your door" urban drone delivery would be nearly impossible as most urban dwellers live in condos, apartments Many such structures in densely-populated areas have large, flat, mostly-empty roofs. (Hell, some of the apartment buildings in my little urban area of ~40k people have flat roofs, as do most of the local dorms.)
legohead 12y ago
Can't wait to see hundreds of flying, buzzing drones zooming around the city.
aesthetics1 12y ago
Am I the only one who can picture thieves shooting these things out of the skies and running off with the packages? I guess it's no different than following the UPS truck and taking the package after they've left, but intercepting a drone farther away (say, over a field somewhere) is probably less conspicuous.
- gamegoblin 12y ago
  I suspect during transit, the drones will be hundreds of meters up (partially to mitigate risk of what you describe, and also to stay as out-of-sight as possible), so you're looking at shooting a small moving target hundreds of meters above you. Seems like a non-issue for the most part unless large numbers of highly trained snipers decide to become package thieves.
aedocw 12y ago
Somewhere along the way it seems people are forgetting everything that has to happen before that stuff is quad-coptered to your doorstep a few minutes after you (via clever marketing) determine you need something as quickly as possible. The relentless march of consumerism will completely disrupt how things are consumed, but I am not sure making "getting stuff" so painlessly easy is great for humanity.

rplnt 12y ago

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.

piyushpr134 12y ago
You have been droned
flyinglizard 12y ago
Dead serious. The technology is there, the economics are there - it just seems outlandish as an idea, but for no real good reason.
- randomsearch 12y ago
  > it just seems outlandish as an idea, but for no real good reason I imagine safety and power issues, talking to friends who research drone tech.
  - wstrange 12y ago
    And payload. A drone just can't carry any significant weight.
    - deleted 12y ago
      [deleted]
      - fl0wenol 12y ago
        Those kind of drones are not the kind of drone that can deliver a package, unless that package can survive a ballistic delivery to the ground. Sure, by shaping the drone into a winged vehicle you can get the payload capacity up and make it move quickly as it goes from waypoint to waypoint on a "delivery route", even in windy conditions. But now you can't deliver the package itself neatly onto the ground adjacent to obstacles like you could with a quadra-copter. If someone can figure out a reusable payload delivery parachute or something like that with the ability to keep itself on course even in windy conditions to hit a drop point on the ground from a couple hundred feet up, and make it work with packaged goods the size of a small book or video game, then it has a chance.
        srdev 12y ago
        Not sure what the deleted post is referencing, but Google is using a fixed-wing design. To deliver the package, you tilt the entire drone up to do VTOL. At this point you can lower the package. In theory, it will work and have higher efficiency than a multicopter design. I'm not sure whether or not Google has had any success with it.
        fl0wenol 12y ago
        That is interesting as hell and I hope it works out; I had a vague sense VTOL wasn't a practical power/weight option for something battery powered.
- rplnt 12y ago
  The economics are definitely not there yet. The insurance alone would make it prohibitively expensive. Then you need a lot of infrastructure due to low range. Light drones also can't fly when it's too windy, too rainy, too cold. And they can only carry a very small subset of usual shipments (limited size and weight). Automated cars on the other hand...
  - Perdition 12y ago
    I can imagine all the people complaining about how they have been waiting for three hours for an Amazon drone delivery while a hurricane rages on outside.
  - xur17 12y ago
    I see the drones as a last mile delivery solution. Rather than flying the drones all the way from the distribution centers to peoples' houses, they could drive their trucks out to your neighborhood, and then release a set of drones to deliver packages the 'last mile'. This would allow them to deliver a bunch of packages at once without the driver getting out of the truck, and larger packages could still be hand delivered for the time being. Also, I'd imagine that the drones would be (remotely) human driven at least the first few times they drop off a package, so they can learn where to drop off the package (similar to how Google handles training their self driving cars). After that, they could drop it off automatically, but hand off control to a human if the environment looks too different.
    - dman 12y ago
      Howre they going to solve the pet problem? I can see curious cats / dogs trying to have a go at the drones.
  - flinty 12y ago
    also most of northeast will be blocked off for multiple months in winter due to snow accumulation on streets and on people's doors

MCRed 12y ago

It's an idea that is DOA. It will never work because it will never be economical, nor safe. If you think about it for a few minutes, you'll realize it's a joke-- like an April Fools joke.

minusSeven 12y ago
do you mean to say drone's are more expensive than people ?
- practicalpants 12y ago
  Their drones could easily be $30k+ a pop, and if they crash, need maintenance, irretrievably fly out of range, or simply become targets of angry people wanting to break them... all problems frequently encountered with high grade hobbyist drones.... then their value vs. an employee is questionable. Crucially we're not even talking about R&D efforts, insurance, regulatory clearing costs, and probably the biggest cost, legal mishaps - and I mean very serious lawsuits - even toy-like DJI Phantom drones can fall/ crash and kill people. I could see drone delivery to rural areas... but urban areas I don't think it's feasible at all, at least not for a long while.
  - shubb 12y ago
    And anyway, driverless cars are happening. Why do you need a drone when the robo uber taxi had a robot arm in the boot and delivers packages during slow times of day? Drones could be useful for a lot of things but if the problem is delivering heavy packages cheaply to places with road access, they are not a rational choice.
    - CPLX 12y ago
      > And anyway, driverless cars are happening. By "happening" you mean "not used for any real purpose besides research or demonstration anywhere in the world" presumably.
      - 12y ago

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

jasonsync 12y ago

The urban environment represents the greatest challenge. For starters. "To your door" urban drone delivery would be nearly impossible as most urban dwellers live in condos, apartments or densely populated areas where landing or hovering presents real-world, safety, security and logistical concerns most likely impossible to overcome. The best case urban scenario is Amazon "drop off points". Basically small Amazon stores strategically located throughout a city with designated landing zones for their drones and close proximity to the recipient - so the recipient (or the delivery person) only needs to walk a few blocks max. In this scenario you're still looking at a "real person" to get the package to the door though. "To your door" sub-urban and rural (the outskirts as you call it) in theory may be more doable as dwellings tend to have driveways, yards and space. However the challenges of urban still exist. And landing (hovering) on location, on private property adds greater complexity from a safety and legal perspective. Amazon has an uphill battle to wage with regards to the legality, rules, regulations and safety of operating unmanned air vehicles over "built up areas" in general. Current pending and existing regulations lean towards flightpaths and fly-zones that ensure drones can land safely in the event of an emergency requiring immediate decent (eg. a crash landing). This means flightpaths over built-up areas of cities and towns in general would be extremely expensive (funding, insurance, lobbying) and most likely impossible under today's regulations. No matter how safe they're deemed, drones represent a hazard to persons and property, and as such they'll be highly regulated. Amazon won't be able to fly them anywhere, anytime soon. It will take time. Now, with all that said, a couple years ago the FAA Modernization and Reform Act was signed, providing funding to the Federal Aviation Authority to establish safety rules that deal with all of the above. The funding as I mentioned has already begun ... to the tune of $60 billion or so. We'll see how the FAA strikes a balance between corporate interest and public safety. In the mean time Amazon Drone Delivery is mostly a marketing / PR tactic to generate interest and buzz. Strategic in the sense that, on the surface, it sounds like something the public would like to see. It's exciting! Progress! Get the public on your side and "fast-tracked regulation" becomes much more realistic.

nknighthb 12y ago
> For starters. "To your door" urban drone delivery would be nearly impossible as most urban dwellers live in condos, apartments Many such structures in densely-populated areas have large, flat, mostly-empty roofs. (Hell, some of the apartment buildings in my little urban area of ~40k people have flat roofs, as do most of the local dorms.)

legohead 12y ago

Can't wait to see hundreds of flying, buzzing drones zooming around the city.

aesthetics1 12y ago

Am I the only one who can picture thieves shooting these things out of the skies and running off with the packages? I guess it's no different than following the UPS truck and taking the package after they've left, but intercepting a drone farther away (say, over a field somewhere) is probably less conspicuous.

gamegoblin 12y ago
I suspect during transit, the drones will be hundreds of meters up (partially to mitigate risk of what you describe, and also to stay as out-of-sight as possible), so you're looking at shooting a small moving target hundreds of meters above you. Seems like a non-issue for the most part unless large numbers of highly trained snipers decide to become package thieves.

aedocw 12y ago

Somewhere along the way it seems people are forgetting everything that has to happen before that stuff is quad-coptered to your doorstep a few minutes after you (via clever marketing) determine you need something as quickly as possible. The relentless march of consumerism will completely disrupt how things are consumed, but I am not sure making "getting stuff" so painlessly easy is great for humanity.