One factor seems missing: the deviation of Han's skills from that of the average pilot. Does C3PO take it into account in his likelihood? Do we take it into acc

One factor seems missing: the deviation of Han's skills from that of the average pilot. Does C3PO take it into account in his likelihood? Do we take it into account in our probability of success? Although I do get the point, it seems there's often something of that sort, a simplification, in that kind of bayesian reasoning.