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I'm curious if this would ever create value as a prediction market. I've often thought that this exact tool, when used as a prediction market could remove some
by Gabriel_Martin 12y ago
I'm curious if this would ever create value as a prediction market. I've often thought that this exact tool, when used as a prediction market could remove some of the froth of this industry.
(Here's a paper Dave McClure wrote about prediction markets, if you're not familiar: http://500hats.typepad.com/files/ChannellingCrowds_DaveMcClure_Release2.0_April2007.pdf http://500hats.typepad.com/files/ChannellingCrowds_DaveMcClu...)
- ghall 12y agoGabriel, With a few months of back data at Sand Hill Exchange, we've found our results often shockingly accurate. For example, even before we experimented with a profit incentive, our users forecast big increases in valuations on Slack (http://blog.sandhill.exchange/post/101804376238/sand-hill-exchange-tuesday-nov-4 http://blog.sandhill.exchange/post/101804376238/sand-hill-ex... ), Beepi, Mattermark, and Reddit, all of which proved true. Our community also outperformed journalists: http://blog.sandhill.exchange/post/101679447223/parsing-the-predictive-power-of-tech-journalists http://blog.sandhill.exchange/post/101679447223/parsing-the-... I won't tell you what the smart money has been betting on in the past few months, but it will be great to see how this pans out. Here's the January predictions of relevance: http://blog.sandhill.exchange/post/109527449373/january-2015-ipo-valuations http://blog.sandhill.exchange/post/109527449373/january-2015...
- scottkduncan 12y agoSo...insider trading then?