Betting against 3 isn't just rolling dice. In a sense, betting against 3 is betting against YC itself (albeit a slightly weaker version, with the variance in st

Betting against 3 isn't just rolling dice. In a sense, betting against 3 is betting against YC itself (albeit a slightly weaker version, with the variance in startup, it will probably takes a few batches in aggregate to make a strong bet). From Sam's point of view, 3) is probably the safest one. Likewise, 1) seems to be the most risky one.