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US cars are on average idle 23 hours a day. Sharing a car between two means roughly halving the fixed costs of ownership, and the more sharing the more reducti

US cars are on average idle 23 hours a day. Sharing a car between two means roughly halving the fixed costs of ownership, and the more sharing the more reduction in fixed costs. Additionally running a fleet is cheaper because of economies of scale such as maintenance, insurance, charging/fueling. AAA has an infographic showing the biggest costs being depreciation and insurance: http://publicaffairsresources.aaa.biz/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Your-Driving-Costs-infographic.png http://publicaffairsresources.aaa.biz/wp-content/uploads/201... A pool also allows other things, such as pricing based on demand - ie being cheaper outside commute hours, spontaneous pooling (eg for a $5 discount can the car go 2 minutes out of its way to pick someone else up?) and being able to bring the right vehicle for each situation (eg a small efficient two seater for a commute, something larger for a family trip to Ikea etc). Sure some people will continue to outright own their cars, but for most the pooled economics will be compelling, and companies will be able to instantly adjust pricing and convenience. Or to put this another way, how many thousands of dollars a year cheaper do you think it will take for the majority of car ownership to change to on demand usage?

agumonkey 12y ago
It may also refactor distribution. People may not go to the grocery store, the store will come to them, or not. Just like in the old days, you'd get a morning delivery, and weekly/monthly too for different kind of products. Stores, if they stay 'material based' will look like IKEA, where you walk inside scenes and pick what you want, while something is loading an SDCar (npi) from a factory not too far away. Damn I feel like a guy in the 60s drawing this http://imgur.com/vmOYZAl http://imgur.com/vmOYZAl
- rogerbinns 12y ago
  I can't see many ways in which much of anything stays the same. For distribution my guess is that delivery companies will spring up (quite probably the same as the car pool companies during off hours) and deliver for anybody. By that I mean that my favourite Chinese restaurant currently has its own delivery vehicles and personnel, but I am expecting generic delivery companies for any/all business. They just need lockboxes in the vehicle which the end user unlocks with their phone/pin/whatever. You could even do things like share your location with the service so that deliveries arrive as you get home, whenever that is. The "city of the future" drawing is interesting. I'm expecting that commercial space will cluster together, optimised around foot traffic, and without vast swathes of asphalt between them, not too different than malls. Residential space is a bit harder to guess - decreasing density will be more manageable, but come at the expense of travel times and delivery fees. What I like most about the driverless future is just how locally mobile it will let everyone be. No more licenses, no more having to have good vision, no more having to worry about age, intoxication, and even time of day.

agumonkey 12y ago

It may also refactor distribution. People may not go to the grocery store, the store will come to them, or not. Just like in the old days, you'd get a morning delivery, and weekly/monthly too for different kind of products. Stores, if they stay 'material based' will look like IKEA, where you walk inside scenes and pick what you want, while something is loading an SDCar (npi) from a factory not too far away. Damn I feel like a guy in the 60s drawing this http://imgur.com/vmOYZAl http://imgur.com/vmOYZAl

rogerbinns 12y ago
I can't see many ways in which much of anything stays the same. For distribution my guess is that delivery companies will spring up (quite probably the same as the car pool companies during off hours) and deliver for anybody. By that I mean that my favourite Chinese restaurant currently has its own delivery vehicles and personnel, but I am expecting generic delivery companies for any/all business. They just need lockboxes in the vehicle which the end user unlocks with their phone/pin/whatever. You could even do things like share your location with the service so that deliveries arrive as you get home, whenever that is. The "city of the future" drawing is interesting. I'm expecting that commercial space will cluster together, optimised around foot traffic, and without vast swathes of asphalt between them, not too different than malls. Residential space is a bit harder to guess - decreasing density will be more manageable, but come at the expense of travel times and delivery fees. What I like most about the driverless future is just how locally mobile it will let everyone be. No more licenses, no more having to have good vision, no more having to worry about age, intoxication, and even time of day.