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Let's assume we do give everybody $35K per year in the USA, to pick a country. At 320MM people in USA, we would be distributing $11T per year, if distributed t
by pdx 12y ago
Let's assume we do give everybody $35K per year in the USA, to pick a country.
At 320MM people in USA, we would be distributing $11T per year, if distributed to every man/woman/child.
If we exclude people under 20 years of age (probably a good idea), we lose 80MM people, giving us an annual distribution of $8.4T
Is $8.4T per year a lot? It seems like it.
In fiscal year 2015, the US federal government is projected to spend around $3.9 trillion.
Let's say that 50% of that is spent on providing financial safety nets. I have no idea if that's true, but let's say it is. Those safety nets would no longer be required, and we could offset some of our new cost by eliminating them.
That means we'd go from a $3.9T federal budget to $3.9T/2 + 8.4T = $10.35T
So we would need to multiply tax revenue by 2.6x to pay for this.
The median household income in the USA is $51K. Those families are taxed at a rate of 13.2%. (they are in a 15% tax bracket, but first $18K is only taxed at 10%)
So, the median income of $51K takes home $44K after taxes. The government gets $7K
Let's inflate their income by $35K, to $86K per year, because of the $35K disbursement.
Now, let's tax them 13.2% x 2.6 = 34%. We're taxing them at a higher rate because the government needs 2.6x money to meet extra budget required by the $35K disbursement program.
So, our median income family now has an income of $86K and are taxed at a rate of 34%, allowing them to take home $57K after taxes.
So, for them, it works out rather nicely, moving from $44K to $57K per year, after taxes, even with the higher tax rate.
However, most of the taxes in the US are paid by the higher tax bracket individuals.
Those individuals would see their tax rate rise from 33% to 86%, dropping their take home pay from $186K - 33% = 125K to (186K + 35K) - 86% = $30K after taxes.
Obviously we would have to rework our tax system, as that can't fly, but even with reworking it somehow, I guess I don't see a way to inflate the federal budget by 2.6x
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OK, obviously $35K is way too much. Let's do it so a man and wife get $34K combined, so $17K per person.
Now we're at $4.1T for this program, to give $17K to every adult of 20 or older.
Again, deducting 50% of our current $3.9T budget and adding $4.1T, we're at a new federal budget of $6.05T
That's 1.55x greater than our current budget, so we need to raise tax revenue by 1.55x to compensate.
Perhaps this becomes possible, assuming 50% of our current federal budget can really be eliminated as redundant.
Social Security alone is 23% of the federal budget, and could probably be replaced by this program. Just 27% to go!
- dandare 12y agosomeone above suggested the welfare aka safety net amounts to 40% of total expenditures, not 50%. Also once you exclude the under 20 population from your basic income you should exclude their welfare aka safety net costs. But in general your calculation has nothing to do with the cost of distributing welfare - the main driver behind basic income - instead you simply want to tax the rich and redistribute the money to the poor. I am not saying it is not a good idea, all I am saying is it has nothing to do with basic income.