I used the phrase "almost surely" because there are occasional counterexamples. It is hardly normative that in an area of science where 95%+ of the scientists

I used the phrase "almost surely" because there are occasional counterexamples. It is hardly normative that in an area of science where 95%+ of the scientists believe something and have that belief backed by evidence that they are wrong. It does happen. It is also true that natural questions are generally natural to the people who study that area. Thus it's something that they've thought of. It is highly improbable that an amateur is going to ask a question or make a point that hasn't at least been thought about by the experts in that area.