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Another way to look at it is that FB is dying because simpler and more appealing competitors (Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp) are popping up that are threatening
by IgorPartola 12y ago
Another way to look at it is that FB is dying because simpler and more appealing competitors (Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp) are popping up that are threatening to grab FB's users' interest more. FB is faced with a quick death by losing a major share of its users over the course of 1-2 years, and the necessity to buy up the competition while it's still able to. I think that's actually a decent strategy: buy up these other apps and establish dominance in all the niche social networking corners. It'll last them maybe a decade I think. The problem is that these disruptive social networks don't make money. Acquiring them is just a way for FB to not lose money. So eventually FB's coffers dry out while more and more niche social networks pop up to steal its users.
My understanding is that social networks are a generational thing. Even if FB was perfect in every way, no market maven teenager (for social networks the market mavens are teenagers) wants to hang out with their aunt. The next generation will stop watching Yo Gabba Gabba, grab their iPhone 9's and want to get on a social network that's separate from their parents. Because of this, I don't see a general purpose social network surviving for longer than 10-12 years and maintaining market dominance.
- lbotos 12y agoWhat if, that social network was built by 5 people, college aged, and they decided to use FB login to save some time developing because they are trying to see if this thing is worth building. A very real probability. FB won't be the powerhouse that it is today, but it's deeply entrenched in our internet that there is value in the social data, not the "blue room" product they offer for free now. (I hate FB, but I get it.)
- IgorPartola 12y agoDo you think if all they provide is the service to store credentials they'd be worth what they are worth now?
- jat850 12y agoI don't know much about Facebook's current offerings, but the answer to your question might depend on what other ubiquitous services they offer now or in the future. Maybe they'll become equally entrenched in the online payment market, or things of that nature. I don't and can't know if that will leave them at their 235B market cap, or if it will be lower or higher.
- marcusgarvey 12y agoFunny. I can't recall where but a few days ago I overheard a teenage say something like, "I wanted to make a Tinder account but I didn't have a FAcebook, so I had to go make that first." Mind you, it seems like a really low quality user for FB and not something I would want to hang a bubbilicious valuation on for them -- unless FB's able to track her activity off FB as well. And I think this is the case.
- mcintyre1994 12y agoActually I wonder how Facebook's user tracking is actually dealing with mobile users who only use their mobile app. It seems like they'd potentially lose a lot of tracking info unless they can track an app login through the mobile browser. I wonder if this is part of the reasoning for their increasing centralization by offering a browser and supposedly actually hosting highly shared content.