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Selling Facebook's stock short would indeed let you bet against the valuation of the Facebook platform, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Keep in mind that markets may

Selling Facebook's stock short would indeed let you bet against the valuation of the Facebook platform, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Keep in mind that markets may be able to stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

IgorPartola 12y ago
What I'm talking about is holding a long term investment against FB. I don't think they'll go bust tomorrow, but I am willing to bet some amount of money their shares will go down sometime between 2-5 years from now.
- tormeh 12y ago
  There are exchange traded funds (ETFs) that short. You can probably find one for the technology sector. You'll probably have to short Intel along with Facebook, but that's the safest way to do it I can think of.
- avn2109 12y ago
  It's almost as if the markets are intentionally structured such that it's easy to place a long-term bet that asset prices will rise, but relatively more difficult to bet the converse :0
  - JimboOmega 12y ago
    You can always buy long-term put options. The premium is high, because of the time range.
    - avn2109 12y ago
      That's exactly what I mean by "relatively more difficult." There is no premium if you buy and hold, in fact that's the baseline situation from which the premium is calculated. And buy-and-hold works for arbitrary timescales, while even long term puts come only in certain flavors. That starts to seem a lot like structurally built-in upward pressure on prices.
- MichaelGG 12y ago
  For $12 you can buy a put at FB's current price ($85) for Jan 2017. But FB has real profits, so you may not wanna bet too much against them. They're also locking up users' Internet access in many markets, making it literally impossible to run a competitor (without negotiating the same ISP access). Perhaps look at Splunk, which does great not only in losing money, but accelerating those losses. (Er, I mean, they "focus on top-line growth".) But hey, maybe they can cut their costs by over 2 (eliminating all R&D wouldn't be enough) but keep the revenue coming in. Then they could be profitable before other systems and hardware catch up. They're only 12 years old, so it's still very early in their long-term story.
  - IgorPartola 12y ago
    I really enjoyed this comment. Thanks. Yeah, I was thinking of the put options. Now I just need that spare money I can gamble with and I am all set.
- toby 12y ago
  FB has put options listed for Jan 2017, that's nearly two years.

IgorPartola 12y ago

What I'm talking about is holding a long term investment against FB. I don't think they'll go bust tomorrow, but I am willing to bet some amount of money their shares will go down sometime between 2-5 years from now.

tormeh 12y ago
There are exchange traded funds (ETFs) that short. You can probably find one for the technology sector. You'll probably have to short Intel along with Facebook, but that's the safest way to do it I can think of.
avn2109 12y ago
It's almost as if the markets are intentionally structured such that it's easy to place a long-term bet that asset prices will rise, but relatively more difficult to bet the converse :0
- JimboOmega 12y ago
  You can always buy long-term put options. The premium is high, because of the time range.
  - avn2109 12y ago
    That's exactly what I mean by "relatively more difficult." There is no premium if you buy and hold, in fact that's the baseline situation from which the premium is calculated. And buy-and-hold works for arbitrary timescales, while even long term puts come only in certain flavors. That starts to seem a lot like structurally built-in upward pressure on prices.
MichaelGG 12y ago
For $12 you can buy a put at FB's current price ($85) for Jan 2017. But FB has real profits, so you may not wanna bet too much against them. They're also locking up users' Internet access in many markets, making it literally impossible to run a competitor (without negotiating the same ISP access). Perhaps look at Splunk, which does great not only in losing money, but accelerating those losses. (Er, I mean, they "focus on top-line growth".) But hey, maybe they can cut their costs by over 2 (eliminating all R&D wouldn't be enough) but keep the revenue coming in. Then they could be profitable before other systems and hardware catch up. They're only 12 years old, so it's still very early in their long-term story.
- IgorPartola 12y ago
  I really enjoyed this comment. Thanks. Yeah, I was thinking of the put options. Now I just need that spare money I can gamble with and I am all set.
toby 12y ago
FB has put options listed for Jan 2017, that's nearly two years.