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Everything is connected. If there's a collapse in private equity funding, you could see consequences such as a decrease in advertising on major platforms such a

by adam419 12y ago

Everything is connected. If there's a collapse in private equity funding, you could see consequences such as a decrease in advertising on major platforms such as Facebook, which would hurt their earning and market cap. I definitely think it would have some systemic consequences, but not at the magnitude of early 2000s unless it's triggered by a general equity market crash or some sort of global debt crisis.

CHaro 12y ago
If there is going to be a crash my money is it being on Student loans
- adam419 12y ago
  While I agree student loan debt may be unsustainable and start defaulting, I don't think it's as disastrous as the subprime crash because (from my understanding) most of student loan debt is on the books of the Federal government, and is not being monetized in anywhere near the magnitude that subprime mortgages were being sold on a global market.
- delecti 12y ago
  The student loan situation is bubble-y, but one big difference is that the loans can't be discharged in bankruptcy. That makes the situation fundamentally different from most bubbles. I'm not saying you're wrong per se, because I think the way student loans are heading is almost bound to be problematic, I just can't picture that bubble "bursting" like we usually think of it. A couple outcomes I could think of would be a law making student loans dischargeable in bankruptcy again, a government bailout type program, or a law greatly reducing the availability of student loan debt. Any of those would have drastic consequences, but I'm still not sure it'd be right to call any of them a bursting bubble (except maybe the first).
malchow 12y ago
Ads are the one thing that folks focus too much on in quest of bubble quarry. I run a large boutique display ad platform, and I'm reasonably confident that advertisements change form, function, and price -- but advertising never goes away. Even the display ad markets in post-Great Recession 2008 were not too bad.

by adam419 12y ago

CHaro 12y ago

If there is going to be a crash my money is it being on Student loans

adam419 12y ago
While I agree student loan debt may be unsustainable and start defaulting, I don't think it's as disastrous as the subprime crash because (from my understanding) most of student loan debt is on the books of the Federal government, and is not being monetized in anywhere near the magnitude that subprime mortgages were being sold on a global market.
delecti 12y ago
The student loan situation is bubble-y, but one big difference is that the loans can't be discharged in bankruptcy. That makes the situation fundamentally different from most bubbles. I'm not saying you're wrong per se, because I think the way student loans are heading is almost bound to be problematic, I just can't picture that bubble "bursting" like we usually think of it. A couple outcomes I could think of would be a law making student loans dischargeable in bankruptcy again, a government bailout type program, or a law greatly reducing the availability of student loan debt. Any of those would have drastic consequences, but I'm still not sure it'd be right to call any of them a bursting bubble (except maybe the first).

malchow 12y ago

Ads are the one thing that folks focus too much on in quest of bubble quarry. I run a large boutique display ad platform, and I'm reasonably confident that advertisements change form, function, and price -- but advertising never goes away. Even the display ad markets in post-Great Recession 2008 were not too bad.