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My only quibble with this is that Sam is assuming about 15% a year appreciation of market value for the established >= $10B companies between now and 2020. Tha
by vasilipupkin 12y ago
My only quibble with this is that Sam is assuming about 15% a year appreciation of market value for the established >= $10B companies between now and 2020. That seems unrealistic, given historical returns of US equity markets. I am sure those companies will innovate going forward, but given how large and established they are, this should be priced into their current valuations. But, I hope Sam wins the bet !
- jeffreyrogers 12y ago> That seems unrealistic, given historical returns of US equity markets. Especially considering we've just had 5 years of pretty remarkable returns in the equity markets, so if anything you'd expect low returns over the next few years. US equity as a whole is valued pretty high relative to earnings at the moment, and the technology sector is in line with that.
- vasilipupkin 12y agoThis also provides some context http://avc.com/2013/02/venture-capital-returns/ http://avc.com/2013/02/venture-capital-returns/