>The first contained 5 black, 5 grey and 5 white balls. >The second contained 2 black, 11 grey and 2 white balls. You can see here in the second version that t

>The first contained 5 black, 5 grey and 5 white balls. >The second contained 2 black, 11 grey and 2 white balls. You can see here in the second version that the grey is a relatively large category. >Despite the fact that the chance of each ball being plucked from the lottery bowl being equal, people were then asked to estimate the probability of a grey number 8 ball being chosen. >And the answers were crazy! People judged chance of choosing the grey 8 ball to be higher in the lottery with 11 grey balls, than the one with 5 grey balls. Put another way, because there were more grey balls than black or white, they thought that the grey #8 ball was more likely to come up. I felt that this result could be found easily by people simply misinterpreting the question. I was very confused by the text in the article. The question was: What is the chance of the grey ball LABELLED BALL NUMBER EIGHT to be plucked. Which is obviously 1/15th in each experiment but the question could be easily misinterpreted to mean: what is the chance of the 8th ball being grey. I have not yet read the original reseach paper Isaac & Brough (2014) so I might be wrong. I just feel like that "people were then asked to estimate the probability of a grey number 8 ball being chosen" is worded very awkwardly ...