6 ms·
I have a number of questions that I've never been able to find satisfactory answers to, and if I got them I could be convinced. But first, let me say, that thi
by padobson 12y ago
I have a number of questions that I've never been able to find satisfactory answers to, and if I got them I could be convinced.
But first, let me say, that this may well be moot. I think solar energy is the way to go. I think the sooner human beings stop burning things they find in the ground for energy, the better. I'll happily give my vote or my money to an elegant solution to make this happen.
Next, my nutshell understanding of global warming:
Temperature and carbon-based greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are closely correlated. For as far back as we can measure (many millennia when using ice cores), atmospheric temperate has been stable along with CO2 concentrations (about 280ppm). Sometime in mid 18th century, CO2 concentrations started to uptick, which caused a rise in temperatures, which in turn caused a rise in CO2 concentrations, compounding continuously to present day levels (1.5 degree temperature increase, ~400 ppm CO2 concentrations). The best explanation for the shift in the balance of the carbon cycle is the additional gases that humans add by burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests, and making concrete.
My questions:
1. Every carbon-temperature hockey stick chart I've seen starts in 1750, when humans were a negligible atmospheric carbon source. Even today, human beings are a minor source of carbon-based gases in the fast carbon cycle. While I can certainly accept that it would only take a minor addition to throw the whole system out of balance, the timing seems strange to me. How do we know that humans are responsible for the initial rise in CO2 concentrations above 280ppm that started 250 years ago when emissions paled in comparison to what they are today?
2. I've seen lots of charts that correlate greenhouse gas concentrations with temperature, but the charts I've seen (like this one: http://bit.ly/18UFLMA http://bit.ly/18UFLMA) that correlate greenhouse gas concentrations and emissions don't seem to correlate as strongly until the blade of the hockey stick, and even then the correlation usually flips, with the proportion of human emissions surpassing the proportion of CO2 concentrations. If humans are directly responsible for present day greenhouse gas concentrations, shouldn't emissions and CO2 concentrations more closely correlate? It seems like greenhouse gas concentrations don't meaningfully rise until temperature meaningfully rises first as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations.
3. Water vapor is a much more abundant greenhouse gas than any gases emitted by human activity. While I understand that other greenhouse gases simply have a higher capacity for trapping heat, what I don't understand is how significantly humans could impact the greenhouse effect when they don't substantially alter the most quantitatively significant greenhouse gas.
4. The most convincing argument for anthropomorphic climate change, to me, is the lack of a viable alternative. Solar forcing seems to be the best alternative offered. Do the climate models used to support anthropomorphic climate change account for variability in solar output? Is there variability in solar output? How is this measured?
- yxhuvud 12y ago3: When it comes to greenhouse gases, increased amounts are effective to a certain concentration, at which point they absorb or reflect everything in the wavelengths that correspond to that gas. The wavelengths for water is saturated.
- swamp40 12y agoThat doesn't jibe very well with the IPCC's claim that increased CO2 levels will then increase the water vapor - thereby amplifying the global warming effect.
- saalweachter 12y agoI am sorry for not addressing all of your points, but I was staring at the graph in #2 and wanted to complain about how useless it is. First, there is the small annoyance that the one number is in parts-per-million and the other in million metric tons; why not convert the atmospheric concentration of CO2 to the corresponding number of metric tons in the atmosphere? But worse, it is comparing the annual CO2 emissions with the atmospheric concentrations! Assuming any relationship between them at all, we expect the emissions to be the derivative of the atmospheric concentration! Any correlation between the total amount of carbon and its rate of change is purely coincidence. The derivative of a quadratic function is a linear function, and while they correlate quite poorly, they are very strongly related. The important question isn't whether emissions are correlated with the atmospheric concentration but to what extent the emissions explain the change in atmospheric concentration. We know how much carbon dioxide we've put out over the last N years, call it X. We know how much more carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere now than N years ago, call it Y. Is X > Y? If so, bingo, bango, bongo, we're responsible for the change. If X < Y, then we can't be completely responsible.
- acqq 12y agoIt seems we burn more than the atmosphere concentration increases at the moment: https://micpohling.wordpress.com/2007/03/30/math-how-much-co2-by-weight-in-the-atmosphere/ https://micpohling.wordpress.com/2007/03/30/math-how-much-co... The oceans absorb some of CO2, but that raises their acidity, destroying corals etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification