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Predictions can be sideways as well as forward. If one gives an explanatory account of some phenomenon, the existential claims made as part of that explanation
by tjradcliffe 12y ago
Predictions can be sideways as well as forward. If one gives an explanatory account of some phenomenon, the existential claims made as part of that explanation should in general have implications for other parts of the same place and time, so by asking if those implications are plausibly supported by what we know of that place and time is a way of testing the idea that "phenomenon X is explained by Y" while still being in a position where it is impossible to make predictions about the future, or other places and times.
- pron 12y agoYes, the problem is that complex systems are complex "sideways" as well (i.e. in all dimensions). Sorry, but that's the nature of non-linear dynamics. They defy quantitative study. That's not to say that it isn't interesting or worthwhile to come up with comparative analysis to explain, say, the "European Miracle", but it can never have the same definitiveness as Newton's laws.