A very similar example gives Kahneman in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" (a great read for those interested in cognitive biases). He calles it "The illusion

A very similar example gives Kahneman in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" (a great read for those interested in cognitive biases). He calles it "The illusion of understanding". Using an example of Google and a number of books depicting Page and Brinn as role models and geniuses, who leaded the company into its great success by taking always the right decisions. It is of course easy to say so knowing already that Google is a successful company. It would be very hard to tell it 15 years ago. Also when you study the history of Google you learn that there was a lot of luck involved, and you won't learn how to build the next google from those books.