4 ms·
The data gathered here: http://www.unodc.org/gsh/en/data.html http://www.unodc.org/gsh/en/data.html don't particularly support this claim, at least with regard
by tjradcliffe 12y ago
The data gathered here: http://www.unodc.org/gsh/en/data.html http://www.unodc.org/gsh/en/data.html don't particularly support this claim, at least with regard to homicide (I'm still looking for data on drug mortality).
Drug decriminalization policy was introduced in Portugal in 2000 and was legally in effect as of July 2001. It is reasonable to assume that police enforcement efforts of drug possession laws were scaled down over the first six months of 2001.
Two years later, the murder rate jumped from 1.1 per 100K population (110-120 murders per year) to 1.4 (140-150 murders per year), wobbled around a bit, peaking in 2007 at 1.8 (185 murders per year) after which it dropped back to the 1.1 - 1.2 range (110-130 murders per year) which is difficult to distinguish from the 2000-2002 value.
In the rest of Europe murders mostly declined over the same period, dropping by about a factor of two in Spain (1.4 to 0.8 murders per year) and either dropping slightly or remaining steady, except for Greece, which also saw a bit of bump mid-decade.
So on the face of it, the murder rate in Portugal did jump two years after the drug policy came into effect, and Greece-which saw no such change in policy--saw a similar bump that was unlikely to be caused by Portuguese drug policy.
Furthermore, without change in drug policy, the rate in Portugal has dropped back to what it was before, and is comfortably in the middle of the European range, from lows of 0.8 for places like Germany and Spain to highs of 1.9 in Belgium, with France and the UK both in the 1.1-1.2 range where Portugal currently sits.
So there is no strong case to be made on the raw statistics alone that changes in the murder rate in Portugal have been strongly influenced by changes in drug policy. It is clear that the murder rate in Portugal increased when most of the rest of Europe was decreasing, but so was the murder rate in Greece. Given the two countries have economic similarities (small nations on the European periphery) that suggests--but does nothing like prove--that economic factors might play a role in the murder rate.
- stuaxo 12y agoInteresting - I wonder where the jump in murders could come from?
- luso_brazilian 12y agoBased on the timeline I would suppose it is related with the massive financial crisis that Portugal plunged in that time period, culminating in the 2011 bailout. At least as far as it can be observed from my first hand perspective most homicides in Portugal are passional in nature: mostly conjugal but many derived from disputes between neighbors or rival groups. It is very rare to see drug motivated murders. One thing that is very clear in these past 10 years in here is that decriminalization allied with social and medical intervention by the government (needle exchange programs, methadone clinics) had two very visible effects in the drug use dynamic in this country, one direct and one indirect. The direct one was to reduce the risk of death and disease among the drug user population. HIV among this group was reduced in 30% [1] for instance. The second effect was indirect. The drug of choice and most problematic (considered an epidemics in the end of the 20th century) was heroin. But as the government started to treat people the drug lost its mistic of a rebellious and dangerous pleasure and became a "hobo drug" for a few poor toxicodependents that depend on the government for their next fix. And that change of perception is (IMO) responsible for the rapid decline of heroin use that followed this policy. All things considered I believe most portuguese see the effects of the decriminalization as a positive thing and, at worst, it had no negative effect in the health of the overall society. [1] http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=4306726 http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=43... (in Portuguese)
- psykovsky 12y agoPolice enforcement efforts of drug possession laws were never scaled down. They still have to see if users are carrying less than the 10 days consumption max. quantity to decide if they charge them as dealers or send them to psych evaluation.