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> See-Through Solar Is Tomorrow’s Threat to Oil > ...screens and windows that soak up light could power your home or your phone These two things don't compute

by diafygi 12y ago

> See-Through Solar Is Tomorrow’s Threat to Oil > ...screens and windows that soak up light could power your home or your phone These two things don't compute. Oil is mostly used for mobile energy, and solar is mostly used for stationary energy. However... I work in solar, and solar is a threat to oil. Why? Not because of transparent photovoltaics, but because it and batteries are getting so goddamn cheap. The Department of Energy has a goal of $0.06/kWh for solar by 2020[1], and Tesla aims to reduce the cost of lithium ion batteries by 50% by 2020[2]. That's only 4.7 years away. When things get that cheap, we can just slap solar everywhere and have "gas stations" with excess inventory of swappable batteries for cars. It baffles me why more entrepreneurs haven't realized that 87% of the energy sources we use are going to be switching to other sources in our lifetimes[3]. [1]: http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/mission http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/mission [2]: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Teslas-Giga-Battery-Factory-Threatens-the-Auto-Utility-and-Building-Contr http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Teslas-Giga-Batt... [3]: http://www.pvsolarreport.com/the-next-internet/ http://www.pvsolarreport.com/the-next-internet/

jameswilsterman 12y ago
"It baffles me why more entrepreneurs haven't realized that 87% of the energy sources we use are going to be switching to other sources in our lifetimes" What leads you to think entrepreneurs haven't realized this? What should they be doing once they do realize it?
- diafygi 12y ago
  My startup is in the SfunCube solar startup accelerator program[1]. So far, all of the entrepreneurs who have applied to the program are from within the solar industry (i.e. they previously worked at a solar company). Additionally, I organize the SF Cleanweb meetups[2], and we rarely see people from the normal tech companies/startups come to events to learn more about the space. I don't really blame anyone for not realizing the huge opportunity in solar. It's not a very visible industry and used to be primarily a hardware space. Software has only come to the forefront in the last few years due to soft costs being such a huge problem[3]. If you're looking for an industry that desperately needs software and entrepreneurial talent, I'd highly recommend solar. [1]: http://www.sfuncube.com/ http://www.sfuncube.com/ [2]: http://www.meetup.com/cleanwebsf/ http://www.meetup.com/cleanwebsf/ [3]: http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2013/5306.html http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2013/5306.html
  - fsavard2 12y ago
    I'm not at all knowledgeable about the solar industry, but I'm curious: how would software reduce the "soft" costs described in that third link (NREL)? It seems to me to be a bunch of costs related to the actors involved, and I don't see how software would help with that. Also, do you have examples of such software?
    - diafygi 12y ago
      Sure! My startup, UtilityAPI.com, is an example of one that is targeting customer acquisition soft costs (10% of total installed cost). When you want to write a proposal for someone thinking about going solar, you need their utility usage and billing history. Collecting that data is currently a very time consuming and painful process, so not only do you spend a lot of man-hours on it, you also lose a huge portion of your funnel at this step. We are building software that automates that utility data collection process, so solar companies can just bake it into their online forms/apps/internal tools. We estimate we can shave 5-10% off the installed price of solar due to time savings and increased conversion. The Department of Energy agreed and recently awarded us with $25k to build SDKs for our API (with the opportunity for $100k more in May)[1]. [1]: http://catalyst.energy.gov/ http://catalyst.energy.gov/
      - fsavard2 12y ago
        Ok I see, you're saying that hidden away in the various strata in that graph are, e.g., process inefficiencies which software can eat away. I was naively looking for something that would solve many categories at once, and being an outsider I think of solar as mostly hardware (like you said). Thanks for the answer.
  - Roodgorf 12y ago
    > solar > not a very visible industry Hah.
barney54 12y ago
Entrepreneurs have realized this, but energy is far more difficult than people will admit. Even if this works and is cheap, the real issue is batteries. Batteries are expensive and their manufacture entails environmental costs. There is no free ride. Yes, Tesla wants to reduce the price of batteries, but that doesn't make it so. If this works you need many multiples of battery capacity as production. That is a staggering amount of batteries. And batteries don't have a long life. How is the battery life on a 10 year old computer?
cmsmith 12y ago
I don't really get the constant focus of the energy conversation on transportation (< 1/3 of total energy use). If, as you say, we can get solar energy to the grid for less than coal then we're getting close to the time when no one will ever build a coal plant again. Then accelerating economies of scale will cause the price to fall to the point where we're shutting down fossil fuel plants, then to the point where we can make biofuels with solar rather than fossil fuels. Now GHG emissions are down 75-90% with a set of mostly evolutionary technical advancements. Some environmentalists might not like that process because it's market-driven and doesn't involve any economy-shrinking monastic self-sacrifice (e.g. Kyoto protocol), but it is the reason I'm reasonably optimistic about climate change.

by diafygi 12y ago

jameswilsterman 12y ago

"It baffles me why more entrepreneurs haven't realized that 87% of the energy sources we use are going to be switching to other sources in our lifetimes" What leads you to think entrepreneurs haven't realized this? What should they be doing once they do realize it?

diafygi 12y ago
My startup is in the SfunCube solar startup accelerator program[1]. So far, all of the entrepreneurs who have applied to the program are from within the solar industry (i.e. they previously worked at a solar company). Additionally, I organize the SF Cleanweb meetups[2], and we rarely see people from the normal tech companies/startups come to events to learn more about the space. I don't really blame anyone for not realizing the huge opportunity in solar. It's not a very visible industry and used to be primarily a hardware space. Software has only come to the forefront in the last few years due to soft costs being such a huge problem[3]. If you're looking for an industry that desperately needs software and entrepreneurial talent, I'd highly recommend solar. [1]: http://www.sfuncube.com/ http://www.sfuncube.com/ [2]: http://www.meetup.com/cleanwebsf/ http://www.meetup.com/cleanwebsf/ [3]: http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2013/5306.html http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2013/5306.html
- fsavard2 12y ago
  I'm not at all knowledgeable about the solar industry, but I'm curious: how would software reduce the "soft" costs described in that third link (NREL)? It seems to me to be a bunch of costs related to the actors involved, and I don't see how software would help with that. Also, do you have examples of such software?
  - diafygi 12y ago
    Sure! My startup, UtilityAPI.com, is an example of one that is targeting customer acquisition soft costs (10% of total installed cost). When you want to write a proposal for someone thinking about going solar, you need their utility usage and billing history. Collecting that data is currently a very time consuming and painful process, so not only do you spend a lot of man-hours on it, you also lose a huge portion of your funnel at this step. We are building software that automates that utility data collection process, so solar companies can just bake it into their online forms/apps/internal tools. We estimate we can shave 5-10% off the installed price of solar due to time savings and increased conversion. The Department of Energy agreed and recently awarded us with $25k to build SDKs for our API (with the opportunity for $100k more in May)[1]. [1]: http://catalyst.energy.gov/ http://catalyst.energy.gov/
    - fsavard2 12y ago
      Ok I see, you're saying that hidden away in the various strata in that graph are, e.g., process inefficiencies which software can eat away. I was naively looking for something that would solve many categories at once, and being an outsider I think of solar as mostly hardware (like you said). Thanks for the answer.
- Roodgorf 12y ago
  > solar > not a very visible industry Hah.

barney54 12y ago

Entrepreneurs have realized this, but energy is far more difficult than people will admit. Even if this works and is cheap, the real issue is batteries. Batteries are expensive and their manufacture entails environmental costs. There is no free ride. Yes, Tesla wants to reduce the price of batteries, but that doesn't make it so. If this works you need many multiples of battery capacity as production. That is a staggering amount of batteries. And batteries don't have a long life. How is the battery life on a 10 year old computer?

cmsmith 12y ago

I don't really get the constant focus of the energy conversation on transportation (< 1/3 of total energy use). If, as you say, we can get solar energy to the grid for less than coal then we're getting close to the time when no one will ever build a coal plant again. Then accelerating economies of scale will cause the price to fall to the point where we're shutting down fossil fuel plants, then to the point where we can make biofuels with solar rather than fossil fuels. Now GHG emissions are down 75-90% with a set of mostly evolutionary technical advancements. Some environmentalists might not like that process because it's market-driven and doesn't involve any economy-shrinking monastic self-sacrifice (e.g. Kyoto protocol), but it is the reason I'm reasonably optimistic about climate change.