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I do no get this. How is the chance of gains less than 1 in a trillion? This is not an all-or-nothing bet: outperforming the market by a very tiny margin also q

I do no get this. How is the chance of gains less than 1 in a trillion? This is not an all-or-nothing bet: outperforming the market by a very tiny margin also qualifies him for the title. So you do not really need 1 trillion managers to get this 1 lucky manager. Much less will suffice - maybe even a couple thousands, which are easily active on the market all the time. So, he very well could be the lucky monkey.

throwawaymsft 12y ago
The typical claim is stock market returns are entirely random, not based on skill, so any returns that beat the perfectly efficient market are purely due to chance. Beating the market (no matter the margin) is purported to be a 50-50 chance, and doing so 40 times in a row would happen by chance less than 1 in a trillion times. (That is, if you accept the premise that stock market investing has no skill component.)