The 'top of the pops' funds are going to be at the top due to survivor bias. It means you can't rely on this fund performing well for the next 10 let alone 40 y

The 'top of the pops' funds are going to be at the top due to survivor bias. It means you can't rely on this fund performing well for the next 10 let alone 40 years, although the past performance does 'bode well' as it indicates some skill. Having said that I'd say it is possible to formulate a strategy that will (on average) beat an index and be better than chance. All that is needed is diligent research and a long term view. With an index you are forced to invest in the good, bad and ugly. When you choose you can do better.