The problem is that programming skill is not normally distributed. There are some big outliers at the brilliant end, and some big outliers at the toxic end. S

The problem is that programming skill is not normally distributed. There are some big outliers at the brilliant end, and some big outliers at the toxic end. So "average" is not really a meaningful term. I mean "average programmer" as "can be trusted with routine tasks". Behind every successful startup, there was one 10x or 100x outlier who did the hard work, even if he was not the person who got public credit for the startup's success. If you're at a large corporation and trying to minimize risk, hiring a large number of average people is the most stable path. You'll get something that sort of mostly works. If you're at a startup and trying to succeed, you need that 10x or 100x person.