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I am an extremely patient investor. I just invested in a company that I believe will take 20-30 years to work. If reddit gets to a billion users, which I beli

by sama 12y ago

I am an extremely patient investor. I just invested in a company that I believe will take 20-30 years to work. If reddit gets to a billion users, which I believe it will, the company will have many, many interesting monetizations opportunities. It's on its way to become one of the great monopolies of the web.

chimeracoder 12y ago
> I just invested in a company that I believe will take 20-30 years to work. How do you conceptualize investments on that sort of timescale? 20 years ago was 1995, and 30 years ago was 1985. So much has changed between then and now. I understand that broader market trends can sometimes be predicted, but when you invest, you're betting not only on a market trend but on a specific instantiation of that trend. How do you conceptualize an investment in a specific team and company on that sort of a timescale, when there's already so much uncertainty around what markets will even exist in 2045?
- sjg007 12y ago
  Reddit is the meta-web. It is probably also flexible enough to be the backbone (aka platform) of other businesses in the future.
  - dfinninger 12y ago
    Yeah, just look at Reddit Gifts. I can totally see more stuff like that pop up.
- walterbell 12y ago
  Access to research prototypes?
ryanSrich 12y ago
> If reddit gets to a billion users What makes this number significant? Can you talk about some of those opportunities that aren't available to reddit now, but will be when they reach that scale?
- tpeng 12y ago
  reddit has the potential to unlock a lot of value if niche subreddits can achieve critical mass. There are quite a few subreddits that could support highly targeted and valuable advertising. Comment and voting quality also appears to improve dramatically with scale; compare the quality of comments on default subs to niche subs. If niche subs can get that dramatic improvement in quality, reddit would also be able to attract much better demographics for commercial purposes
  - waterlesscloud 12y ago
    In my experience, the comments on the niche subs are of considerably higher quality than the default subs. So much so that I'm puzzled what you could be thinking about. Can you give some examples?
    - tpeng 12y ago
      It's basically a mathematical guarantee. Reddit shows 200 comments by default, so if there are 20k comments, then you are roughly getting the top 1% of comments. If there are fewer than 200 comments, you are getting ALL the comments, basically unfiltered. I've also noticed that the best users make a greater effort on comments that may be read by a large number of users (granted, the average user probably does not) Voting quality clearly goes up with scale. On a small subreddit, you can make a brilliant comment, and only one person votes on it and you are at score 0. On default subs, the voting tends to be more accurate (though with a populist/groupthink bias) I think some are confusing comment quality with comment value. A really funny, but silly joke would be a high quality, low value comment. The default subs tend to be lowest common denominator subjects, like "cute" stuff and politics -- low value. Whereas niche subreddits are highly focused on your particular passions and interests. Niche subreddits have greater value to users, which is why they are also more valuable for advertising and monetization purposes. At sitewide scale, the quality of existing niche subreddits would improve dramatically, and smaller niches that do not exist today as subreddits would gain sufficient scale to support independent subreddits. I think that these niche subreddits could support almost search keyword-like targeting (albeit with lower CPMs because no immediate indication of intent). Imagine native feed advertising volume with keyword-like CPMs. Not that it's highly relevant, but I'm a developer of a popular reddit app for iOS.
notsony 12y ago
Why did Reddit's board appoint Ellen Pao as CEO when it was already known she had a high-profile gender discrimination lawsuit with Kleiner Perkins to deal with? Many capable people could lead Reddit so why choose someone with highly visible distractions? For example, Ellen's husband has been accused of running a $140 million Ponzi scheme! > "Users lash out at Reddit boss for ‘deleting’ posts on hubby’s lawsuit" "Alphonse “Buddy” Fletcher ran a hedge fund, Fletcher International, that is now bankrupt. He owes millions in unpaid legal bills and tax liens and the bankruptcy trustee described it as a Ponzi scheme. Fletcher still owns several apartments in the storied Dakota on Manhattan’s Upper West Side while his defunct fund owes more than $140 million in court judgments." http://nypost.com/2015/03/18/users-lash-out-at-reddit-boss-for-deleting-posts-on-hubbys-lawsuit/ http://nypost.com/2015/03/18/users-lash-out-at-reddit-boss-f...
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
shawnee_ 12y ago
This explains quite a bit when it comes to YC tending to not give a fair shot to companies whose business model hinges on/around creating [a] niche community. It occurred to me recently (before reading this comment) that the idea I applied to YC with would probably be very successful as a subreddit. Which of course would be great for Reddit ... because a growing company is a cannibalistic company. But if it _were_ a subreddit, I'd essentially be forced into volunteering on it full-time for an idea that was making Conde-Naste all the money. The critical mass of ~1 billion would for sure allow Advance P to throw its weight and influence just about anywhere... like any of the media conglomerates. But I'm just not a fan of monopolies or any clustered niches operating under a corporate umbrella. Even one whose motives are supposedly as democratic as Reddit's.
username223 12y ago
> It's on its way to become one of the great monopolies of the web. How is it a "monopoly"? Usenet was a "great monopoly" (with better UIs) before it died. So was Digg. Pseudonymous chat servers are a dime a dozen. When Reddit grows "interesting monetizations," people will just go elsewhere.

by sama 12y ago

chimeracoder 12y ago

> I just invested in a company that I believe will take 20-30 years to work. How do you conceptualize investments on that sort of timescale? 20 years ago was 1995, and 30 years ago was 1985. So much has changed between then and now. I understand that broader market trends can sometimes be predicted, but when you invest, you're betting not only on a market trend but on a specific instantiation of that trend. How do you conceptualize an investment in a specific team and company on that sort of a timescale, when there's already so much uncertainty around what markets will even exist in 2045?

sjg007 12y ago
Reddit is the meta-web. It is probably also flexible enough to be the backbone (aka platform) of other businesses in the future.
- dfinninger 12y ago
  Yeah, just look at Reddit Gifts. I can totally see more stuff like that pop up.
walterbell 12y ago
Access to research prototypes?

ryanSrich 12y ago

> If reddit gets to a billion users What makes this number significant? Can you talk about some of those opportunities that aren't available to reddit now, but will be when they reach that scale?

tpeng 12y ago
reddit has the potential to unlock a lot of value if niche subreddits can achieve critical mass. There are quite a few subreddits that could support highly targeted and valuable advertising. Comment and voting quality also appears to improve dramatically with scale; compare the quality of comments on default subs to niche subs. If niche subs can get that dramatic improvement in quality, reddit would also be able to attract much better demographics for commercial purposes
- waterlesscloud 12y ago
  In my experience, the comments on the niche subs are of considerably higher quality than the default subs. So much so that I'm puzzled what you could be thinking about. Can you give some examples?
  - tpeng 12y ago
    It's basically a mathematical guarantee. Reddit shows 200 comments by default, so if there are 20k comments, then you are roughly getting the top 1% of comments. If there are fewer than 200 comments, you are getting ALL the comments, basically unfiltered. I've also noticed that the best users make a greater effort on comments that may be read by a large number of users (granted, the average user probably does not) Voting quality clearly goes up with scale. On a small subreddit, you can make a brilliant comment, and only one person votes on it and you are at score 0. On default subs, the voting tends to be more accurate (though with a populist/groupthink bias) I think some are confusing comment quality with comment value. A really funny, but silly joke would be a high quality, low value comment. The default subs tend to be lowest common denominator subjects, like "cute" stuff and politics -- low value. Whereas niche subreddits are highly focused on your particular passions and interests. Niche subreddits have greater value to users, which is why they are also more valuable for advertising and monetization purposes. At sitewide scale, the quality of existing niche subreddits would improve dramatically, and smaller niches that do not exist today as subreddits would gain sufficient scale to support independent subreddits. I think that these niche subreddits could support almost search keyword-like targeting (albeit with lower CPMs because no immediate indication of intent). Imagine native feed advertising volume with keyword-like CPMs. Not that it's highly relevant, but I'm a developer of a popular reddit app for iOS.

notsony 12y ago

Why did Reddit's board appoint Ellen Pao as CEO when it was already known she had a high-profile gender discrimination lawsuit with Kleiner Perkins to deal with? Many capable people could lead Reddit so why choose someone with highly visible distractions? For example, Ellen's husband has been accused of running a $140 million Ponzi scheme! > "Users lash out at Reddit boss for ‘deleting’ posts on hubby’s lawsuit" "Alphonse “Buddy” Fletcher ran a hedge fund, Fletcher International, that is now bankrupt. He owes millions in unpaid legal bills and tax liens and the bankruptcy trustee described it as a Ponzi scheme. Fletcher still owns several apartments in the storied Dakota on Manhattan’s Upper West Side while his defunct fund owes more than $140 million in court judgments." http://nypost.com/2015/03/18/users-lash-out-at-reddit-boss-for-deleting-posts-on-hubbys-lawsuit/ http://nypost.com/2015/03/18/users-lash-out-at-reddit-boss-f...

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

shawnee_ 12y ago

This explains quite a bit when it comes to YC tending to not give a fair shot to companies whose business model hinges on/around creating [a] niche community. It occurred to me recently (before reading this comment) that the idea I applied to YC with would probably be very successful as a subreddit. Which of course would be great for Reddit ... because a growing company is a cannibalistic company. But if it _were_ a subreddit, I'd essentially be forced into volunteering on it full-time for an idea that was making Conde-Naste all the money. The critical mass of ~1 billion would for sure allow Advance P to throw its weight and influence just about anywhere... like any of the media conglomerates. But I'm just not a fan of monopolies or any clustered niches operating under a corporate umbrella. Even one whose motives are supposedly as democratic as Reddit's.

username223 12y ago

> It's on its way to become one of the great monopolies of the web. How is it a "monopoly"? Usenet was a "great monopoly" (with better UIs) before it died. So was Digg. Pseudonymous chat servers are a dime a dozen. When Reddit grows "interesting monetizations," people will just go elsewhere.