I agree. There are at least six intractable problems, I can see. * Defining the thing you're looking for (in your example you say 'what at the time would be t

I agree. There are at least six intractable problems, I can see. * Defining the thing you're looking for (in your example you say 'what at the time would be thought "dead"' - that opens up the whole problem of excluding the middle, are the options only resurrection vs non-resurrection?) * Calculating any particular probability without a direct frequentist correlate (the probability that the bible would mention a genuine resurrection, in your example). * Choosing a frequentist correlate when they are available (the reference class problem). * Determining the prior. * Determining which posterior probabilities to include (to be accurate you have to include all relevant probabilities, but that's impossible in practice, there could be an almost infinite number of contributing factors, so the choice of what to include begs the question). * For probabilities after the first, removing the correlation with previous probabilities (BT assumes that the influence of previous information is excluding from new information, because of the conditional probability, in practice this is almost possible to do). Then there's the problem that, for small inputs, the error in BT is very large. If your calculations ever drop to low probabilities (unless you can put tight bounds on the error of everything you've done), you effectively lose all information in the calculation.