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Realistically do you think a lottery winner is comparable to a successful startup employee? Lottery winners are entirely random while startup successes comes af

Realistically do you think a lottery winner is comparable to a successful startup employee? Lottery winners are entirely random while startup successes comes after years of working in a structured business environment with a built in community of successful business people. A lottery winner could be a guy in small town Tennessee who got lucky while he worked at the local corner store and has a group of friends & family asking for his money. A startup success is one or two social ties away from Sequoia or Peter Thiel, has meaningful work experience and has a group of friends actively trying to make him more money. There's a huge difference. And I honestly don't mean this to be dismissive of a "typical lottery winner." The social environment you live in is a huge deal. Being in the SV community is going to lead you down a path of investments that typical lottery winners don't have immediate access to. If you win the lottery and Warren Buffet is a family friend you're much more likely to do well than if you win the lottery and your mother was receiving food stamps when you were in elementary school. Business people will answer your email, almost anyone's email, I'm not a big deal by any stretch of the imagination but I've chatted with Gary V and exchanged emails with Paul Graham. If lightning struck and I had a suddenly had a bunch of money to invest I could ask for powerful, connected help and there's a good chance I would get it from someone because no one cares how you made the money in your bank account. But at the very least I know where to look for that help, random lottery player guy doesn't necessarily have that and that's just his environment not anything inherent about him. Startup employee who cashed out is probably a lot more like me than typical lottery winner.

breischl 12y ago
>>Realistically do you think a lottery winner is comparable to a successful startup employee? In some ways, yes. Certainly there are difference, but people are people. How many college grads get their first job that pays real money and immediately throw themselves into debt for new cars and nice condos? How many people cash out of a startup and plow the proceeds into another one, effectively doubling down on that particular lottery? Clearly there are differences between the groups, so the average outcomes could definitely be different. But I don't think it's obviously true. It would be interesting to see a longitudinal study of people who cashed out significant amounts from startups. I'm sure they do better than the average lottery winner - but then they were probably doing better before the windfall as well. The interesting question would be whether the windfall changed their trajectory, or was just a blip.

breischl 12y ago

>>Realistically do you think a lottery winner is comparable to a successful startup employee? In some ways, yes. Certainly there are difference, but people are people. How many college grads get their first job that pays real money and immediately throw themselves into debt for new cars and nice condos? How many people cash out of a startup and plow the proceeds into another one, effectively doubling down on that particular lottery? Clearly there are differences between the groups, so the average outcomes could definitely be different. But I don't think it's obviously true. It would be interesting to see a longitudinal study of people who cashed out significant amounts from startups. I'm sure they do better than the average lottery winner - but then they were probably doing better before the windfall as well. The interesting question would be whether the windfall changed their trajectory, or was just a blip.