For results in the $X00k range, I think it's easier to just pick more inevitable startups (relatively). I would also say that you should plan to stay through th

For results in the $X00k range, I think it's easier to just pick more inevitable startups (relatively). I would also say that you should plan to stay through the vesting and event and to only work for market salary. Picking at the Founder+epsilon stage is not easy -- if you are doing that, pick serial-winners.