That chance of a 1-in-a-x_amount_of_time event happening does not change right after it happens It would if it was based on bad or previous thinking and models

That chance of a 1-in-a-x_amount_of_time event happening does not change right after it happens It would if it was based on bad or previous thinking and models. I think that's what the point was. We may need to throw out our old models, and if that happens this could be a lot more common.