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Step 4 is not at all obvious and would require some significant justification. General intelligence is, well, general. My primate brain may not be able at all
by maaku 12y ago
Step 4 is not at all obvious and would require some significant justification.
General intelligence is, well, general. My primate brain may not be able at all to intuit what it is like to move on a 7-dimensional hyper-surface in an 11-dimensional space, but thanks to the wonders of formalized mathematics I can work out and tell you anything you want to know about higher-dimensional geometry. If the super-intelligence itself is computable, and we have the machinery to verify portions of the computation ourselves, it is in principle understandable.
Of course there will be computational limits, but that's hardly anything new. There is no single person who can tell you absolutely everything about how a Boeing 787 works. Not even the engineers that built the thing. They work in groups as a collective intelligence, and use cognitive artifacts (CAD systems, simulators, automated design) to enhance their productive capacity. But still, we manage to build and fly them safely and routinely.
There is no law of nature which says that human beings can't understand something which is smarter than them. Deep Blue is way smarter than me or any other human being at Chess. But its operation and move selection is no mystery to anyone who cares to investigate its inner workings.
- csallen 12y agoI agree that it's not impossible for us to understand something smarter than us. But I don't particularly like your examples. Understanding a static well-organized human-designed system like a 787 or a chess-playing algorithm is far simpler than understanding the thoughts and desires of a dynamic intelligence. A better analogy would be to stick to IQ. How long would it take a group of people with an average IQ of 70 to understand and predict the workings of the mind of a genius with an IQ of 210? Probably a very long time, if ever. What if the genius was involved in direct competition with the group of people? She'd be incentivized to obscure her intentions and run circles around the group, and she'd likely succeed at both. Just how intelligent might an AGI become given enough compute power? A 3x IQ increase is a conservative prediction. 10x, 100x, or even 1000x aren't unimaginable. How can pretend to know what such an intelligence might think about or care about?