You're right: AGI might not be as powerful as some predict it can be. And there might be a way to contain it if it is. And we might be able to enforce said cont

You're right: AGI might not be as powerful as some predict it can be. And there might be a way to contain it if it is. And we might be able to enforce said containment strategy on researches worldwide. And the AGI might be benevolent even if it is super powerful and uncontainable. The authors above are unpersuasive in arguing that these things are inevitable, but they are persuasive in arguing that these things are possible. And if they are possible, then what matters to me is their likelihood. Based on current estimates, are we talking about a 50-50 chance here? 80-20? 99-1? 99.999-0.001? If we're talking about the future of the human race, these chances matter. But instead it seems everyone is just waving their hands at the what-ifs simply because they aren't 100%.