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Arrhenius predicted global warming in 1896: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius#Greenhouse_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius#Greenh

• AndrewKemendo 12y ago
  Ah, Fantastic! He led the creation of the field of climatology if I recall. If someone can do forecasting of AGI with similar empiricism that would be revolutionary and welcomed.
  • aamar 12y ago
    Arrhenius probably did no empirical research in this field. He devised a generalized formula based on theoretical considerations and indirect measurements (of the moon's appearance). It would take ~60 years before a quorum of researchers believed his formula could provide accurate real-life predictions. Moravec's 70s papers are roughly comparable to Arrhenius's formula. The basic computational power predictions (a minor extension of Moore's law) still seem to be basically correct. There's a reasonable debate to be had about whether more interesting predictions made by Moravec/Kurzweil/etc. have been validated or not.