4 ms·
You're right. There is something fishy. The 13.9 per cent of men would include homosexuals. Let's say there are 1000 men, 5 percent of which are homosexuals.
by rauljara 17y ago
You're right. There is something fishy.
The 13.9 per cent of men would include homosexuals. Let's say there are 1000 men, 5 percent of which are homosexuals.
So 950 straight men, 50 homosexuals and 139 virgins between them.
950 * x + 50 * y = 139, where x is the straight virginity rate. y is the homosexual virginity rate, and y = 11 * x.
So 950 * x + 50 * (11 * x) = 139
950x + 550x = 139
1500x = 139
x = 0.0926
9.26 percent of straight men are virgins, 101.9% of gay men are.
If homosexual men make up 10% of the population
900x + 1100x = 139
x = 0.07
76% of gay men are virgins.
If homosexual men are 20% of the population
800x * 2200x = 139
x = 0.046
51% of gay men are virgins. Less than 5% of straight men are.
The first situation is impossible. I guess 10% homosexual one might be plausible if they very narrowly defined losing one's virginity to having had anal intercourse. A lot of gay men exclusively have oral sex.
- gort 17y agoWolfram is real useful for this sort of thing, by the way; here are your three calculations with: A = P(gay), B = P(virgin | gay), C = P(virgin | not gay) If 5% are gay: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=A+*+B+%2B+%281+-+A%29+*+C+%3D+.139+and+B+%3D+C+*+11+and+A+%3D+0.05 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=A+*+B+%2B+%281+-+A%29+*... If 10% are gay: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=A+*+B+%2B+%281+-+A%29+*+C+%3D+.139+and+B+%3D+C+*+11+and+A+%3D+0.1 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=A+*+B+%2B+%281+-+A%29+*... If 20% are gay: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=A+*+B+%2B+%281+-+A%29+*+C+%3D+.139+and+B+%3D+C+*+11+and+A+%3D+0.2 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=A+*+B+%2B+%281+-+A%29+*...
- nostrademons 17y agoI was wondering if Wolfram's logs would show a bunch of queries for P(gay), P(virgin | gay), and P(virgin | not gay), then realized you'd given them variables. More's the pity. I'd love to see the face of the employee that sees a bunch of queries for P(virgin | gay).
- tokenadult 17y agoI have a friend who is an epidemiology research for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He says that the best evidence is that the percentage of gay men is considerably less than the often-said 10 percent of the population (derived from Kinsey's unscientific survey), so a small percentage of gay men in your calculation would be the most plausible. This depends crucially on the definition of "gay," but for most epidemiologically relevant purposes, an estimate nearer to 2 percent seems warranted by scientific surveys.
- seldo 17y agoHave you got any links to these surveys other than your friend? I would be really interested to know the incidence. The actual number is ludicrously hard to pin down: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_sexual_orientation#Modern_survey_results http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_sexual_orientat... The biggest problem is that nobody really agrees with what a "gay man" is for the purposes of counting them anyway. Does just one homosexual experience count? What about if (as this survey suggests is common) you have a lifetime of clear homosexual thoughts but no opportunity to act on them? What if you're any of the infinite variations of bisexuality between completely homosexual and completely heterosexual? I tend to work with 4%-8%, depending on definition, but I'll be the first to admit it's a total shot in the dark.
- tokenadult 17y agoI wish I could help with more authoritative data. Thanks for asking, but I cannot. All I know is that the 10 percent figure comes from Kinsey, but Kinsey's anecdotal reports were not scientifically gathered by means that would ensure that the percentage is representative. I could agree with the whole range you think is plausible, not being able to point to definitive figures.