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Did anyone actually say that superhuman machine intelligence is prima facie ridiculous? I followed the discussion pretty closely, both on hackernews and the quo
by karmacondon 12y ago
Did anyone actually say that superhuman machine intelligence is prima facie ridiculous? I followed the discussion pretty closely, both on hackernews and the quotes and discussion by prominent researchers, and I don't remember reading that. It's possible that one or two people somewhere in the discussion said the idea was completely ridiculous, but it didn't seem to be the common sentiment. The main dissenting ideas I saw said that it was too far away to be considered as a threat, and that most high profile researchers weren't giving it serious consideration.
I don't doubt that "otherwise smart people" have said that superhuman machine intelligence is completely improbable, but I don't know about the "many" part. There's always someone who will say anything. The closest I've seen to a consensus is disputing the timeframe for AGI/SMI, not the possibility.
For that matter, I don't remember seeing a lot of people say "Computers will never play chess" or "Computers could never drive cars" or "Computers could never compete on Jeopardy". I can't recall one prominent researcher saying any of those things definitively, much less "many" people saying any of them.
It seems like there might be some inserting of quotations into the mouths of others going on here.
- jeffreyrogers 12y agoYes, I think your assessment of the situation is correct.
- andreyf 12y ago> I don't know about the "many" part I'll go there, as has everyone I've talked to about the subject (probably half a dozen or so people). I have not heard a convincing proposal of a path towards a rogue autonomous AI, and I've looked reasonably hard. I'm not sure why otherwise smart people are for some reason just now getting worried about an idea first popularized by The Terminator in 1984. > Superhuman machine intelligence is prima facie ridiculous It's not just prima facie ridiculous, it's ridiculous after thinking about it for some time. We will have problems with enormously powerful machine-augmented individuals and machine-augmented totalitarian organizations (be they corporations or governments) long before we have problems with a completely autonomous out-of-control AI.