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I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia. I'd say best case for him is 10 years i

by exelius 12y ago

I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia. I'd say best case for him is 10 years in jail. Because there is almost no question that he broke the law; he will be arguing intent and conscientiousness. His chief demand will likely be that the government not charge him under the espionage act, which is so broad and inflexible it would not even allow him to present a defense. No idea what other legal statutes he could be charged under, but whatever they are would have to at least allow the possibility of raising the "I did this in the best interests of the country, not the best interests of our military contractors and bureaucrats" defense. Oh, and also that the trial will be a media circus and keep the NSAs surveillance programs in the news for the greater part of the next decade.

slantedview 12y ago
> I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia That may be the case, but keep in mind, in some way this story isn't news. Snowden has always said he'd like to come home. That hasn't changed.
- exelius 12y ago
  I completely agree; the timing is curious to me though. Given how savvy he and his team (i.e. the reporters he's been working with) are with manipulating the media, I wouldn't be surprised if this is just becoming public because the US is entering into a presidential election cycle. IMO the best political outcome for the democrats would be to have Obama pardon him as part of the presidential pardons every president issues on his last day in office. Bush actually gave last-day pardons to people accused of much more dangerous leaks of classified information (the whole Valerie Plame scandal), so it's not unprecedented.
CoreSet 12y ago
Knowing that he would be treated unfairly and seeking that treatment just the same precisely to expose that unfairness makes me respect him even more.
fargolime 12y ago
He'd be imprisoned for a long time for sure. But note that Rosa Parks wasn't. As a nation we're more ruthless now.
- doktrin 12y ago
  Do you really think this is an apples to apples comparison?
TillE 12y ago
> I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia. That's rather extreme, and I'm not aware of the slightest shred of evidence for it. As far as we know, he's still living a fairly normal life with his girlfriend in Moscow. He could be concerned about Russia not renewing his status in the future, though.
- mhurron 12y ago
  > > situation in Russia has deteriorated > That's rather extreme, and I'm not aware of the slightest shred of evidence for it. It's winter. Even diehard Russians who will gladly give their life for Mother Russia want to leave. On a more serious note, I don't believe there is a place on earth he could expect to get treated fairly.
- exelius 12y ago
  It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him. What I did get out of Citizenfour is that Snowden understands international politics, and that he would know his existence in Russia will last only as long as Putin needs him for. But given the increasing distrust in Russia towards all things American right now, it can't be a particularly welcoming environment for someone who considers himself a crusader of truth and freedom.
  - nyolfen 12y ago
    >It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him. "what they want"? he entered the country without any of the documents if those are what you're referring to. his safe life in russia acts as a snub to washington at a time when US/russian relations are at a historic low, which is presumably the entire reason they gave him a visa and refuse to extradite him to begin with. it's no great expenditure on the part of the russian state to host him, he's just a guy living with his girlfriend
msandford 12y ago
> Because there is almost no question that he broke the law Perhaps. He may well have sworn an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign or domestic. And if he did in fact do that, then his "illegal" whistle-blowing is in fact required of him in order to execute his oath. You know, the whole 4th Amendment re: unreasonable search or seizure.
enraged_camel 12y ago
Even if he goes to jail for 10 years and then gets out, then what? He would still face the big risk of "mob justice," since a significant portion of the population thinks he's a traitor.
- bhayden 12y ago
  If OJ can escape mob justice, pretty sure Snowden will be fine.

by exelius 12y ago

slantedview 12y ago

> I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia That may be the case, but keep in mind, in some way this story isn't news. Snowden has always said he'd like to come home. That hasn't changed.

exelius 12y ago
I completely agree; the timing is curious to me though. Given how savvy he and his team (i.e. the reporters he's been working with) are with manipulating the media, I wouldn't be surprised if this is just becoming public because the US is entering into a presidential election cycle. IMO the best political outcome for the democrats would be to have Obama pardon him as part of the presidential pardons every president issues on his last day in office. Bush actually gave last-day pardons to people accused of much more dangerous leaks of classified information (the whole Valerie Plame scandal), so it's not unprecedented.

CoreSet 12y ago

Knowing that he would be treated unfairly and seeking that treatment just the same precisely to expose that unfairness makes me respect him even more.

fargolime 12y ago

He'd be imprisoned for a long time for sure. But note that Rosa Parks wasn't. As a nation we're more ruthless now.

doktrin 12y ago
Do you really think this is an apples to apples comparison?

TillE 12y ago

> I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia. That's rather extreme, and I'm not aware of the slightest shred of evidence for it. As far as we know, he's still living a fairly normal life with his girlfriend in Moscow. He could be concerned about Russia not renewing his status in the future, though.

mhurron 12y ago
> > situation in Russia has deteriorated > That's rather extreme, and I'm not aware of the slightest shred of evidence for it. It's winter. Even diehard Russians who will gladly give their life for Mother Russia want to leave. On a more serious note, I don't believe there is a place on earth he could expect to get treated fairly.
exelius 12y ago
It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him. What I did get out of Citizenfour is that Snowden understands international politics, and that he would know his existence in Russia will last only as long as Putin needs him for. But given the increasing distrust in Russia towards all things American right now, it can't be a particularly welcoming environment for someone who considers himself a crusader of truth and freedom.
- nyolfen 12y ago
  >It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him. "what they want"? he entered the country without any of the documents if those are what you're referring to. his safe life in russia acts as a snub to washington at a time when US/russian relations are at a historic low, which is presumably the entire reason they gave him a visa and refuse to extradite him to begin with. it's no great expenditure on the part of the russian state to host him, he's just a guy living with his girlfriend

msandford 12y ago

> Because there is almost no question that he broke the law Perhaps. He may well have sworn an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign or domestic. And if he did in fact do that, then his "illegal" whistle-blowing is in fact required of him in order to execute his oath. You know, the whole 4th Amendment re: unreasonable search or seizure.

enraged_camel 12y ago

Even if he goes to jail for 10 years and then gets out, then what? He would still face the big risk of "mob justice," since a significant portion of the population thinks he's a traitor.

bhayden 12y ago
If OJ can escape mob justice, pretty sure Snowden will be fine.