That should only be the case when they are poor analysts. If they are good analysts, they should be more likely to claim a heretical opinion and predict orthodo

That should only be the case when they are poor analysts. If they are good analysts, they should be more likely to claim a heretical opinion and predict orthodox opinions. After all, those who have the most information are not in a position to accept the most common opinions, and they have enough information to know what the common opinions are. I would say it's not really about who is telling the truth, but who you should listen to -- who is relevant in addition to truthful.