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I don't see why that would be. It seems to me that people are vastly more likely to purport to hold an orthodox opinion when they actually hole a heretical one
by gweinberg 12y ago
I don't see why that would be. It seems to me that people are vastly more likely to purport to hold an orthodox opinion when they actually hole a heretical one than vice versa. But obviously they will also predict that other people will purport to hold the orthodox opinion.
- Retra 12y agoThat should only be the case when they are poor analysts. If they are good analysts, they should be more likely to claim a heretical opinion and predict orthodox opinions. After all, those who have the most information are not in a position to accept the most common opinions, and they have enough information to know what the common opinions are. I would say it's not really about who is telling the truth, but who you should listen to -- who is relevant in addition to truthful.
- proveanegative 12y agoI think gweinberg had in mind the sort of situation in which saying you hold a heretical opinion brings a punishment that would not be offset by you being recognized as a superior expert later. This creates an incentive to lie.