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Bayesian Truth Serum
- crusso 12y agoIt looks like an algorithmic leveraging of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
- compbio 12y agoYes, it looks similar. Problem: Getting honest questions on questionaires is difficult. Setup: Respondents supply not only their own answers, but also percentage estimates of others' answers. Algorithm: The BTS formula assigns higher scores to answers that are surprisingly common. Premise: If people truly hold a particular belief, they are more likely to think that others agree or have had similar experiences. http://www.slideshare.net/micmickimo/introduction-to-bayesian-truth-serum http://www.slideshare.net/micmickimo/introduction-to-bayesia...
- gweinberg 12y agoI don't see why that would be. It seems to me that people are vastly more likely to purport to hold an orthodox opinion when they actually hole a heretical one than vice versa. But obviously they will also predict that other people will purport to hold the orthodox opinion.
- Retra 12y agoThat should only be the case when they are poor analysts. If they are good analysts, they should be more likely to claim a heretical opinion and predict orthodox opinions. After all, those who have the most information are not in a position to accept the most common opinions, and they have enough information to know what the common opinions are. I would say it's not really about who is telling the truth, but who you should listen to -- who is relevant in addition to truthful.
- proveanegative 12y agoI think gweinberg had in mind the sort of situation in which saying you hold a heretical opinion brings a punishment that would not be offset by you being recognized as a superior expert later. This creates an incentive to lie.