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You have heard "19 times out of 20" described in the news? That is the 0.05 restated for laypeople. 1 time out of 20 you will get a false positive, in this case
by sunir 12y ago
You have heard "19 times out of 20" described in the news? That is the 0.05 restated for laypeople. 1 time out of 20 you will get a false positive, in this case that the rabbit's foot worked.
- WhitneyLand 12y agoSorry maybe I'm being dense, but who would take 1 out of 20 success to mean they should start buying rabbit feet?
- Mvandenbergh 12y agoNobody. The problem is that if you conduct 20 trials of the efficacy of rabbit feet, you'd expect 1 trial to show a significant effect. (if you're interpreting P-values the way many people do, incorrectly.)
- DanBC 12y agoWhen you do a single trial you might show that rabbits feet are effective. You don't yet know if this is a 1 in 20 result or a 19 in 20 result. That's why you replicate.
- ejain 12y agoYou'd start buying rabbit feet because only the study that was "successful" is published.