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Banning p-values makes sense to me, as they force you to declare an effect as either significant or not significant, rather than looking at the preponderance of
by stdbrouw 12y ago
Banning p-values makes sense to me, as they force you to declare an effect as either significant or not significant, rather than looking at the preponderance of the evidence and building knowledge over multiple experiments. It also leads us to focus on statistical uncertainty at the expense of all of the other kinds of uncertainty researchers are faced with: do I have the theory to back this up, am I actually measuring what I am trying to measure, is this coherent with other findings in the field? I do think the editors might be right when they say banning p-values will make the quality of the research go up, not down.
But if you read the original editorial, up at http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01973533.2015.1012991 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01973533.2015.101..., you can see that they also reject confidence intervals and Bayesian reasoning with uniform priors (which is really the same thing) without providing any guidance at all on better procedures. I fear that will just lead readers to try and guess the reliability of the data themselves, or worse, interpret the sample statistics as numbers without any associated uncertainty.
So they're doing away with poor statistical procedures, but at what cost? It's like that old joke: we've found a 100% reliable cure for cancer – bombing the planet until everybody's dead.
- nabla9 12y agoMethodological flexibility in statistical modeling has gone trough the roof. New tools and estimation methods make Bayesian methods easy to use: Jags and Stan, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, the variational Bayesian approximations, expectation propagation and even probabilistic programming (note: Bayesian in this context does not mean subjectivity. It's the ability to quantify uncertainty in the results and increased flexibility in the modeling). New methods and tools are faster to use and give better results, but they require more statistical knowledge. If the scientist applying these methods or peer review can't understand the advances, it's all for nothing. Many sciences are methodologically very conservative to the extent that it holds the science back. How do you increase the statistical knowledge of the field so much that peer review and researchers can be expected to understand and use the new methods if they can't be trusted with p-value?