> IBM didn't come out with the first personal computer - Apple and Commodore did. IBM wasn't a startup -- it had massive distribution resources. When you have

> IBM didn't come out with the first personal computer - Apple and Commodore did. IBM wasn't a startup -- it had massive distribution resources. When you have access to an enormous distribution channel and massive marketing budgets, the rules are obviously different. > Microsoft didn't have the first operating system for x86 machines - Digital Research did. Yes, but Microsoft piggybacked off of IBM's distribution channel. That's extremely rare, and 99.99% of startups can't swing that sort of deal. > AOL once dominated social networking. Facebook moved into a quite mature space - Myspace, Geocities, and several others were big companies when Facebook started. AOL, MySpace, and Geocities effectively committed suicide. It's nice when that happens, but you can't count on it. There are no guarantees, it's all a balance of probabilities. The point isn't that the first mover always wins, it's that if you aren't the first mover the balance of probabilities is against you.