I think people might overestimate the effect of machines being capable of improving themselves. I don't believe in "magic algorithm"s, that we can't find, that

I think people might overestimate the effect of machines being capable of improving themselves. I don't believe in "magic algorithm"s, that we can't find, that perform dramatically better, but computer can find. I think we are capable of taking, in a few years time, advantage of most hardware. Dramatic improvements in performance thus require improving physical matrix the computation happens in. That means the prospective machine intelligence needs to have access to all the infrastructure thats needed to design and produce such matrix. It also will need to make experiments, and do things by trial-and-error, just like we do, even tho it could catch a hint easier than we do. Think of chess. Seeing a couple of moves further in to the game might require 1000 times more raw computation. Such power might guarantee victory over lesser equipped competition. It still doesn't mean you'd be even close to "solving" the game. What I mean is, "intelligence" is not the only requirement needed for self-improvement. In the end, it might not even be the bottleneck at all. For example, suppose we are planning the next generation of a transistor for some IC. Suppose a team of humans needs to do 100 experiments to get the process right. A perfectly smart AI might still need to run 90 experiments, no matter what, because it still needs to extract the same information that humans would from those experiments. The machine needs to do all the chores (of R&D) that we already are doing. I'm not saying they couldn't be done better, but I'm saying they still need to be done, and any creature doing them still needs to spend the time and resources needed to do them. And it's not all brainwork. I have no doubts vanilla humans can be outcompeted at some point. But even when human performance has been exceeded, technology might not immediately take off rocket-like to a world we cannot comprehend. Still, I wonder, what the hell are we all going to do when paying the power-bills and capital costs of AI become cheaper than hiring a human..