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I think this is a more legitimate concern than the fear of the "Matrix outcome" that some people seem to have. But, what you're describing is the process of pe
by delluminatus 12y ago
I think this is a more legitimate concern than the fear of the "Matrix outcome" that some people seem to have.
But, what you're describing is the process of people being replaced by technology. Generally speaking, this will probably not be a problem for a free-market economy, although it will certainly result in some unemployment.
The key point is that replacing humans with machines does not only cause unemployment, but it also reduces cost of production, which stimulates capital investment and/or reduces prices in the industry in question. In the general economy, this reduced cost and increased production should offset the lost "purchasing power" from the now-unemployed parties. The stimulus reduces costs in other industries which promotes job growth.
The end result is likely to be that the same number of people are employed, but they are employed in a more efficient manner of production. The cost of labor will decrease relative to the amount of production, however because this is tied to a decrease in cost of production, the real value of the labor (in terms of things you can buy) should not decrease.
Of course there will be some disenfranchised individuals, especially those who have particular skills that are replaced my mechanization. However, this is more likely to affect skilled laborers (like cooks) than those who are not paid for their skills (like janitors or cashiers).
In the end, I guess my point is that a free-market economy naturally balances these factors due to the relationship between supply and demand. However, it's possible that we will reach a point, especially if we truly do hit a Singularity, where we will have to reconsider the use of a scarcity-based economy at all, as production becomes completely divorced from any human action. Hopefully though, at that point the cost of goods will have naturally fallen to such a degree that the transition can be performed peacefully.
- x0x0 12y agoJust for starters, consider how an unemployed walmart cashier, strawberry picker, or janitor becomes a doctor. They don't. Replacing humans with machines exactly causes unemployment, as could be easily seen by eg the last 40 years of economic history. Unemployed people can't buy anything. You could also consider comparing the approaching wave of robotic mechanization with the first wave. Again, there was a lot of violence and it took many decades for increased standards of living to reach the working class. Your entire post is economically illiterate.
- rybosome 12y agoI'm not an economist, but my understanding of the massive social impact observed in the Industrial Revolution was not so much that it happened at all, but rather the rapidity with which it happened. We ultimately reached a new, stable equilibrium, but until various social forces and trends, government policy, etc. caught up, there was massive disruption. People like Jeremy Howard believe that we are in for a similar wave of disruption. I have no doubt that there is a new, stable equilibrium which we _could_ eventually reach, but if the change is so sudden and the shock strong enough, perhaps there could be permanent or semi-permanent negative consequences before the new equilibrium is reached.
- delluminatus 12y agoI think you're right, that does seem like a possibility. It seems unlikely to me that our wage-paying jobs will be phased out by automation that rapidly, especially if you consider the whole global economy. Of course, I could be completely wrong -- I guess a true Singularity could invalidate almost all labor in a matter of years or even months, depending on what form the AI takes and what it invents.