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I don't think the average reader is going to interpret this as subtle irony, and I have doubts that it was intended to be taken that way. I think an average rea

by tbabb 12y ago

I don't think the average reader is going to interpret this as subtle irony, and I have doubts that it was intended to be taken that way. I think an average reader going to see that an airplane expert smells something fishy and has a bunch of technical "knowledge" to back it up. This is how conspiracy theories get started, and if this guy really understands how unlikely all this is, it is arguably irresponsible of him to put it forward. What kind of journalism gets published with such little substantiation? Nobody, not even the tinfoil hat-wearers in his own forum take him seriously, but because he's a cable news expert, his credibility means a million people hear his shitty pet idea. And plenty of people are going to take it at face value.

Klinky 12y ago
I think a large portion of the conspiracy theorist population probably has a mental illness that makes them susceptible to delusional thinking. Delusional people can lead very normal fully functioning lives, but mix a certain topic that offers patterns which make their brain go down a certain path, and they suddenly become very adamant about believing something that is illogical and irrational. There is probably little someone can do to really stop conspiracy theories. People certainly shouldn't censor themselves.
- Potando 12y ago
  I don't think it counts as a disease if the majority of people, including most successful people "suffer" from it without any negative consequences for themselves. For example religion.
  - Klinky 12y ago
    A mental illness does not have to result in major negative side effects to be considered an illness. People can live very normal looking lives, while also having delusional thoughts.
    - scrollaway 12y ago
      Or maybe this obsession with calling absolutely everything that doesn't fit the everyday-narrower definition of a "normal person" a mental illness needs to stop. Next thing you know, "People who don't want to be snooped on by the government have a mental illness and don't understand why it's a good thing."
- fluxtemp 12y ago
  I'd say it's the opposite. The large portion of the population who believes everything the authorities tell them has a mental illness that prevents them from thinking critically and for themselves.
  - Klinky 12y ago
    No one should abandon critical thinking.
  - palmer_eldritch 12y ago
    I don't see how that's opposite. Not believing in conspiracy theories doesn't imply not thinking critically. In fact, critical thinking is pretty harmful to most conspiracy theories.
    - V-2 12y ago
      Correct, but some people are rejecting every conspiracy theory on the sole ground that it assumes conspiracy, and this heuristic is not critical thinking.
      - palmer_eldritch 12y ago
        Given the amount of signal vs noise, I think it's pretty reasonable to ignore the crazies until they can back up their claims with hard evidence. If they can't do that, their "theory" isn't worth my time. Now if one of the crazies keeps bugging me with his theory, I might apply critical thinking to shut him up, if I don't lose patience and punch him in the face first.
        socceroos 12y ago
        You've just contradicted yourself. On the one hand you state critical thinking is key and on the other hand you dismiss questioning popular opinion as crazy.
        12y ago
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- DanBC 12y ago
  What's the prevelance of conspiracy theories? About half of Americans claim creationism explains the existance of man; only about 20% say humans evolved without God. 50% of Americans think there was a wider conspiracy behind the assassination of JFK. About 35% of Americans think that global warming is a hoax. What you're doing is probably the conjunction fallacy. You see people with odd beliefs. You then have a choice: i) these people have odd beliefs ii) these people have a mental illness and odd beliefs. Even though i is more probable you have to explain the irrationality of the beliefs so yu pick ii, even though we know it's less likely. Mental illness is very common (1 in 4 at any point in our lifetime; 1 in 6 right now) but these numbers talk about the widest interpretation of mental illhealth. Delusional thinking is thought to be less common. Mood disorders are thought to affect about 5% of the US population; schizophrenia about 1%. So you've suddenly diagnosed very many more people with a mental illness.
  - Klinky 12y ago
    I think there is a difference between someone who is causally stating an opinion, and someone who has fully subscribed to a specific conspiracy theory.
  - gjm11 12y ago
    > conjunction fallacy [...] you pick ii, even though we know it's less likely We know that "mental illness and odd beliefs" is less likely than "odd beliefs". That doesn't mean we know that "mental illness and odd beliefs" is less likely than "no mental illness and odd beliefs", which is the relevant comparison here. (But, for what it's worth, I think most people who embrace conspiracy theories don't do so as a result of anything that would be diagnosed as a mental illness.)
  - hellbanner 12y ago
    1 in 4, really?
  - samspot 12y ago
    Interesting choices: > half of Americans claim creationism explains the existance of man This is a fantastic explanation, it just doesn't originate from science. > 50% of Americans think there was a wider conspiracy behind the assassination of JFK. This is a perfectly logical thing to believe even in the absence of evidence. It's reasonable for any assassination of a prominent figure. > 35% of Americans think that global warming is a hoax. This topic is super-politicized. Uncritical acceptance would be unreasonable (and many do accept one side of this without questioning it). Most people aren't going to do any research into the topic. The 65% who believe global warming probably didn't do any research either. I think it's not even very fair to call these 'odd beliefs'.
- koolkat 12y ago
  I don't think being a "conspiracy theorist" is delusonal at all if there are overwhelming facts supportig the theory. When did it become crazy to "...have an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation." Watergate, Iran-contra, prism, the cia drug trafficking during Vietnam, Cia torture programs. All of them can be defined as conspiracies yet they are true. Something is not false just for being a conspiracy. Almost everything secret agencies do can be defined as a conspiracy.
  - DanBC 12y ago
    Conspiracy theories are bizare explanations of events that don't fit reality. Thus, Iran-Contra is not a conspiracy theory because it's true, even though it is a conspiracy.
    - Ar-Curunir 12y ago
      That's a ridiculously narrow and exclusionary definition of conspiracy theories, one that's set up to only include those theories that are clearly delusional. If you asked a average person three years ago whether they thought that all their calls were being recorded and that the NSA was hacking into companies and stealing data you would have been called delusional and your explanation would have been bizarre and unreal. Yet here we are today with clear evidence that all these things are being done with no repercussions for the perpetrators.
      - stef25 12y ago
        Ie, it's not because you're paranoid that they're not after you.
      - DanBC 12y ago
        > If you asked a average person three years ago whether they thought that all their calls were being recorded and that the NSA was hacking into companies and stealing data you would have been called delusional A person can still be operating under a conspiracy theory and talk about pervasive government surveillance. Just because it's true doesn't make it not a conspiracy theory. But also, for your example, anyone paying attention had been saying, pretty loudly, that governments were surveiling their populations. See, for example, the EU parliament report into ECHELON. We know about ECHELON in the early 1990s. Thus, if someone had said "They've done it before, look at ECHELON, they're probably doing it now" -- that's a reasonable bit of evidence and a reasonable conclusion. If someone says "I hear clicks on my phone line and so the government is spying on me" that's a conspiracy theory (because the evidence is bogus) even though it's true (governments do spy on citizens).
- personlurking 12y ago
  I think you're confusing those who believe in lizard-people with those that might question the government version of certain events. This is the purpose of the term consipracy theory/theorist, to group together anyone who believes in, or merely just questions, a certain accepted event or idea. It really is a great term, as it's something that negates any other possible outcome. What really should be considered here is the fact that proof requires a scientific setting. One cannot prove anything that occurs outside of a controlled setting, simply because it's not repeatable. Theories, both those set in reality and those that exist outside it, will forever be subject to this fact, and therefore be very questionable to (ie, not accepted by) the masses.
- laumars 12y ago
  I consider peoples need for a conspiracy theory to be the same as peoples need for religion or superstition. It's about a need to believe in some higher order to seemingly uncontrollable chaos. I don't think it's fair to call this evolutionary trait as a "mental illness" either, since correlating cause and effect is what helped us learn to farm and such like. The hard part is separating linked events from coincidences - which is where the scientific method comes in of using larger sample groups, control groups and peer reviews. However lets also remember that this is an extremely recent development in our evolution. As a footnote, it's also worth noting that these traits have also been observed in other species such as pigeons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B._F._Skinner#Superstition_in_the_pigeon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B._F._Skinner#Superstition_in_t...
  - krapp 12y ago
    Two quotes by Alan Moore about conspiracy theories which I think are apt: "The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic. The truth is, that it is not the Jewish banking conspiracy or the grey aliens or the 12 foot reptiloids from another dimension that are in control. The truth is more frightening, nobody is in control. The world is rudderless." "Yes, there is a conspiracy, in fact there are a great number of conspiracies that are all tripping each other up. And all of those conspiracies are run by paranoid fantasists and ham-fisted clowns. If you are on a list targeted by the CIA, you really have nothing to worry about. If however, you have a name similar to somebody on a list targeted by the CIA, then you are dead."
socceroos 12y ago
> What kind of journalism gets published with such little substantiation? Uhh....so, so much of journalism today is exactly that; to the point that articles that are substantial are the exception.

by tbabb 12y ago

Klinky 12y ago

I think a large portion of the conspiracy theorist population probably has a mental illness that makes them susceptible to delusional thinking. Delusional people can lead very normal fully functioning lives, but mix a certain topic that offers patterns which make their brain go down a certain path, and they suddenly become very adamant about believing something that is illogical and irrational. There is probably little someone can do to really stop conspiracy theories. People certainly shouldn't censor themselves.

Potando 12y ago
I don't think it counts as a disease if the majority of people, including most successful people "suffer" from it without any negative consequences for themselves. For example religion.
- Klinky 12y ago
  A mental illness does not have to result in major negative side effects to be considered an illness. People can live very normal looking lives, while also having delusional thoughts.
  - scrollaway 12y ago
    Or maybe this obsession with calling absolutely everything that doesn't fit the everyday-narrower definition of a "normal person" a mental illness needs to stop. Next thing you know, "People who don't want to be snooped on by the government have a mental illness and don't understand why it's a good thing."
fluxtemp 12y ago
I'd say it's the opposite. The large portion of the population who believes everything the authorities tell them has a mental illness that prevents them from thinking critically and for themselves.
- Klinky 12y ago
  No one should abandon critical thinking.
- palmer_eldritch 12y ago
  I don't see how that's opposite. Not believing in conspiracy theories doesn't imply not thinking critically. In fact, critical thinking is pretty harmful to most conspiracy theories.
  - V-2 12y ago
    Correct, but some people are rejecting every conspiracy theory on the sole ground that it assumes conspiracy, and this heuristic is not critical thinking.
    - palmer_eldritch 12y ago
      Given the amount of signal vs noise, I think it's pretty reasonable to ignore the crazies until they can back up their claims with hard evidence. If they can't do that, their "theory" isn't worth my time. Now if one of the crazies keeps bugging me with his theory, I might apply critical thinking to shut him up, if I don't lose patience and punch him in the face first.
      - socceroos 12y ago
        You've just contradicted yourself. On the one hand you state critical thinking is key and on the other hand you dismiss questioning popular opinion as crazy.
        12y ago
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
DanBC 12y ago
What's the prevelance of conspiracy theories? About half of Americans claim creationism explains the existance of man; only about 20% say humans evolved without God. 50% of Americans think there was a wider conspiracy behind the assassination of JFK. About 35% of Americans think that global warming is a hoax. What you're doing is probably the conjunction fallacy. You see people with odd beliefs. You then have a choice: i) these people have odd beliefs ii) these people have a mental illness and odd beliefs. Even though i is more probable you have to explain the irrationality of the beliefs so yu pick ii, even though we know it's less likely. Mental illness is very common (1 in 4 at any point in our lifetime; 1 in 6 right now) but these numbers talk about the widest interpretation of mental illhealth. Delusional thinking is thought to be less common. Mood disorders are thought to affect about 5% of the US population; schizophrenia about 1%. So you've suddenly diagnosed very many more people with a mental illness.
- Klinky 12y ago
  I think there is a difference between someone who is causally stating an opinion, and someone who has fully subscribed to a specific conspiracy theory.
- gjm11 12y ago
  > conjunction fallacy [...] you pick ii, even though we know it's less likely We know that "mental illness and odd beliefs" is less likely than "odd beliefs". That doesn't mean we know that "mental illness and odd beliefs" is less likely than "no mental illness and odd beliefs", which is the relevant comparison here. (But, for what it's worth, I think most people who embrace conspiracy theories don't do so as a result of anything that would be diagnosed as a mental illness.)
- hellbanner 12y ago
  1 in 4, really?
- samspot 12y ago
  Interesting choices: > half of Americans claim creationism explains the existance of man This is a fantastic explanation, it just doesn't originate from science. > 50% of Americans think there was a wider conspiracy behind the assassination of JFK. This is a perfectly logical thing to believe even in the absence of evidence. It's reasonable for any assassination of a prominent figure. > 35% of Americans think that global warming is a hoax. This topic is super-politicized. Uncritical acceptance would be unreasonable (and many do accept one side of this without questioning it). Most people aren't going to do any research into the topic. The 65% who believe global warming probably didn't do any research either. I think it's not even very fair to call these 'odd beliefs'.
koolkat 12y ago
I don't think being a "conspiracy theorist" is delusonal at all if there are overwhelming facts supportig the theory. When did it become crazy to "...have an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation." Watergate, Iran-contra, prism, the cia drug trafficking during Vietnam, Cia torture programs. All of them can be defined as conspiracies yet they are true. Something is not false just for being a conspiracy. Almost everything secret agencies do can be defined as a conspiracy.
- DanBC 12y ago
  Conspiracy theories are bizare explanations of events that don't fit reality. Thus, Iran-Contra is not a conspiracy theory because it's true, even though it is a conspiracy.
  - Ar-Curunir 12y ago
    That's a ridiculously narrow and exclusionary definition of conspiracy theories, one that's set up to only include those theories that are clearly delusional. If you asked a average person three years ago whether they thought that all their calls were being recorded and that the NSA was hacking into companies and stealing data you would have been called delusional and your explanation would have been bizarre and unreal. Yet here we are today with clear evidence that all these things are being done with no repercussions for the perpetrators.
    - stef25 12y ago
      Ie, it's not because you're paranoid that they're not after you.
    - DanBC 12y ago
      > If you asked a average person three years ago whether they thought that all their calls were being recorded and that the NSA was hacking into companies and stealing data you would have been called delusional A person can still be operating under a conspiracy theory and talk about pervasive government surveillance. Just because it's true doesn't make it not a conspiracy theory. But also, for your example, anyone paying attention had been saying, pretty loudly, that governments were surveiling their populations. See, for example, the EU parliament report into ECHELON. We know about ECHELON in the early 1990s. Thus, if someone had said "They've done it before, look at ECHELON, they're probably doing it now" -- that's a reasonable bit of evidence and a reasonable conclusion. If someone says "I hear clicks on my phone line and so the government is spying on me" that's a conspiracy theory (because the evidence is bogus) even though it's true (governments do spy on citizens).
personlurking 12y ago
I think you're confusing those who believe in lizard-people with those that might question the government version of certain events. This is the purpose of the term consipracy theory/theorist, to group together anyone who believes in, or merely just questions, a certain accepted event or idea. It really is a great term, as it's something that negates any other possible outcome. What really should be considered here is the fact that proof requires a scientific setting. One cannot prove anything that occurs outside of a controlled setting, simply because it's not repeatable. Theories, both those set in reality and those that exist outside it, will forever be subject to this fact, and therefore be very questionable to (ie, not accepted by) the masses.
laumars 12y ago
I consider peoples need for a conspiracy theory to be the same as peoples need for religion or superstition. It's about a need to believe in some higher order to seemingly uncontrollable chaos. I don't think it's fair to call this evolutionary trait as a "mental illness" either, since correlating cause and effect is what helped us learn to farm and such like. The hard part is separating linked events from coincidences - which is where the scientific method comes in of using larger sample groups, control groups and peer reviews. However lets also remember that this is an extremely recent development in our evolution. As a footnote, it's also worth noting that these traits have also been observed in other species such as pigeons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B._F._Skinner#Superstition_in_the_pigeon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B._F._Skinner#Superstition_in_t...
- krapp 12y ago
  Two quotes by Alan Moore about conspiracy theories which I think are apt: "The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic. The truth is, that it is not the Jewish banking conspiracy or the grey aliens or the 12 foot reptiloids from another dimension that are in control. The truth is more frightening, nobody is in control. The world is rudderless." "Yes, there is a conspiracy, in fact there are a great number of conspiracies that are all tripping each other up. And all of those conspiracies are run by paranoid fantasists and ham-fisted clowns. If you are on a list targeted by the CIA, you really have nothing to worry about. If however, you have a name similar to somebody on a list targeted by the CIA, then you are dead."

socceroos 12y ago

> What kind of journalism gets published with such little substantiation? Uhh....so, so much of journalism today is exactly that; to the point that articles that are substantial are the exception.