The answer to the headline question is: "very". Speculation on the location of MH370 is evidence of innumeracy, at best. Insanity, at worst: http://www.tjradcl

The answer to the headline question is: "very". Speculation on the location of MH370 is evidence of innumeracy, at best. Insanity, at worst: http://www.tjradcliffe.com/?p=1364 http://www.tjradcliffe.com/?p=1364 tl;dr: because air disasters are incredibly improbable, the range for speculation is almost completely unbounded, and therefore the probability that any particular speculation is correct is vanishingly small.