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For your specific case you can look at camelcamelcamel: http://camelcamelcamel.com/LEGO-4657599-Shuttle-Expedition-10231/product/B004ZWKWQQ http://camelcamelcamel.com/LEGO-4657599-Shuttle-Expedition-1... The last first-party price change ($84.97) corresponds to a steady and sustained increase in third-party price, so I'm assuming they discontinued the product in December of 2013 and the price is now driven by market forces. Just looking at other recommended space sets, I'm seeing prices jump 2x to 3x between when they were discontinued and now.