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Every Team’s Chances of Winning in Every Minute, According to Gamblers
- mod 12y agoGiven that this is only over one season, it's entirely possible that the gamblers were accurate and luck / coincidence accounted for the difference. Additionally, there are very, very few gamblers savvy enough to make a living betting sports--and even they may just be "running good." Mostly that means it's hard to beat the bookmakers soundly enough to overcome the rake.
- realbarack 12y agoBut that's the whole point: the book is like a stock price. It reflects all available information. Across all gamblers, it should be pretty accurate/efficient. The reason I like this approach is that it doesn't rely on a model of winning percentage that some statistician somewhere threw together. Which would you trust more to reflect the true value of Google: some random Goldman analyst's model, or the price of GOOG?