4 ms·

Could you expand on this please.

pg_is_a_butt 12y ago
if you don't understand yet, you'll never understand.
mod 12y ago
Yeah, so he's using heads-up hand strengths. So how well QQ fares vs all other hands, for instance, but only one hand at a time. (It's not QQ in a pot with 9 other hands.) Then he computing weighted hand strengths based on frequency of opponents playing a hand. So now QQ doesn't win as often, given that the opponent doesn't play 27o very often so you don't actually get to win hands vs 27o (they don't occur). BUT to determine how often an opponent plays a given hand, he's using the IRC poker database, which is full-table hands. So we see that people play K7 infrequently, for instance, which is true at a full ring game. But in a heads-up match, K7 is played very, very frequently. 85%+ I'd say, but easily 75%. [1] [1] I played heads-up poker professionally for a few years. I logged millions of hands.
defen 12y ago
Hand strength isn't all that matters - you also need to account for "expected winnings". A-9 has a strong hand strength, but in a real game you'll probably win small pots with that and lose large ones. 9-10 has a middling hand strength but when you win, you'll probably win big.
- mod 12y ago
  That's not what this blog post was about at all, and certainly not what GP asked me to expand upon. You're not wrong, it's just off-topic, essentially. You could say that you need to account for talent, too--but at some point you're going beyond what can be analyzed, at least currently. NLHUHE is not a solved game.
  - defen 12y ago
    I'm just saying, if you simply used these results to guide your bidding process, any halfway-decent player would take all your money.
    - mod 12y ago
      These charts are nothing more than starting hand strengths. There's no mention of 'bidding process' on any street. I'm not even sure how you could extrapolate a betting strategy from the post. It doesn't even mention money, let alone stack sizes, position, or any of the thousands of variables you might factor into an entire strategy.
      - defen 12y ago
        The post talks about "which hand is more likely to win". All I'm saying is that you don't care about how many hands you win, you care about how much money you win. It would be like measuring programmer productivity using number of lines of code written. This is obviously not an issue for someone who already understands poker, but if you didn't and you tried to use this table to scale your bets according to your overall likelihood of winning with a particular hand, then you wouldn't do well.
      - scott_s 12y ago
        I think you're in violent agreement with defen. You're probably so entrenched in Texas Hold'em thinking that it didn't even occur to you that a naive player may see this and think, "This hand is great! I'm going to bet it all!" defen is just pointing out that is a terrible idea, which I think you agree with, but it probably didn't occur to you that anyone could be so naive to even try.
        mod 12y ago
        I am in violent agreement with defen, however I'm not with you. Given a very naive player with a hand they've seen on the chart is great, I'd advise them to bet it all (early/preflop) rather than try to play a hand out. I think they'll be more profitable on average, particularly against a solid player, which defen mentioned.

if you don't understand yet, you'll never understand.

mod 12y ago

Yeah, so he's using heads-up hand strengths. So how well QQ fares vs all other hands, for instance, but only one hand at a time. (It's not QQ in a pot with 9 other hands.) Then he computing weighted hand strengths based on frequency of opponents playing a hand. So now QQ doesn't win as often, given that the opponent doesn't play 27o very often so you don't actually get to win hands vs 27o (they don't occur). BUT to determine how often an opponent plays a given hand, he's using the IRC poker database, which is full-table hands. So we see that people play K7 infrequently, for instance, which is true at a full ring game. But in a heads-up match, K7 is played very, very frequently. 85%+ I'd say, but easily 75%. [1] [1] I played heads-up poker professionally for a few years. I logged millions of hands.

defen 12y ago

Hand strength isn't all that matters - you also need to account for "expected winnings". A-9 has a strong hand strength, but in a real game you'll probably win small pots with that and lose large ones. 9-10 has a middling hand strength but when you win, you'll probably win big.

mod 12y ago
That's not what this blog post was about at all, and certainly not what GP asked me to expand upon. You're not wrong, it's just off-topic, essentially. You could say that you need to account for talent, too--but at some point you're going beyond what can be analyzed, at least currently. NLHUHE is not a solved game.
- defen 12y ago
  I'm just saying, if you simply used these results to guide your bidding process, any halfway-decent player would take all your money.
  - mod 12y ago
    These charts are nothing more than starting hand strengths. There's no mention of 'bidding process' on any street. I'm not even sure how you could extrapolate a betting strategy from the post. It doesn't even mention money, let alone stack sizes, position, or any of the thousands of variables you might factor into an entire strategy.
    - defen 12y ago
      The post talks about "which hand is more likely to win". All I'm saying is that you don't care about how many hands you win, you care about how much money you win. It would be like measuring programmer productivity using number of lines of code written. This is obviously not an issue for someone who already understands poker, but if you didn't and you tried to use this table to scale your bets according to your overall likelihood of winning with a particular hand, then you wouldn't do well.
    - scott_s 12y ago
      I think you're in violent agreement with defen. You're probably so entrenched in Texas Hold'em thinking that it didn't even occur to you that a naive player may see this and think, "This hand is great! I'm going to bet it all!" defen is just pointing out that is a terrible idea, which I think you agree with, but it probably didn't occur to you that anyone could be so naive to even try.
      - mod 12y ago
        I am in violent agreement with defen, however I'm not with you. Given a very naive player with a hand they've seen on the chart is great, I'd advise them to bet it all (early/preflop) rather than try to play a hand out. I think they'll be more profitable on average, particularly against a solid player, which defen mentioned.