5 ms·

Fascinating. I've seen a few remarkable showdowns between AQ and KK, I never would have guessed the odds were quite so tilted in KK's favour.

davis_m 12y ago
AQ vs KK is no different than A10 or AJ vs KK. Even middling Aces like A7 or A8 aren't much worse off because of the lost straight possibilities due to two K's being taken. I haven't looked at the numbers but I would bet that A2-A5 are better off against KK than AQ.
- GCA10 12y ago
  The numbers have arrived -- thanks to www.sliceeq.com -- and your hunch is right. After 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, Slice declares that winning odds are as follows KK (70.9%) vs AQsuited or AQoffsuit (29.1%) KK (69.2%) vs A5suited or A5offsuit (30.8%) The reason why the seemingly inferior hand of A5 does better is that it has about a 4.6% chance of making a straight. (Usually A2345, but conceivably something else) The AQ hand has only about a 2.7% chance of making a straight, because the deck is depleted of Kings, making the desired AKQJT straight hard to catch. In general, Slice is a wonderful -- and free -- tool for testing various hand outcomes, particularly against likely ranges that an opponent might have. NOTE: The simulation percentages above will vary slightly each time Slice goes hunting for 100,000 random hands. But the disparity between AQ and A5 generally is somewhere between 1.5 and 2 percentage points.
  - cleatsupkeep 12y ago
    Additionally, if AQ has made a straight with a K, KK now has a redraw to a full house. If the flop was KJT, KK still has a 34% chance to win the hand.
Devthrowaway80 12y ago
Yup, it's a classic poker situation referred to as a "race". Interesting visualization!
- mod 12y ago
  AQ v KK is not a race, it's a rout.
  - ssharp 12y ago
    Right. AQ vs. JJ would be a race.
  - Devthrowaway80 12y ago
    Right you are, my mistake.
  - TimPC 12y ago
    Everything that's wrong with poker as a game can be exhibited in the fact that 70-30 is considered a rout. It's slightly better than 2 to 1, you lose almost 1/3rd of the time. AQ vs KK preflop is roughly like leading 1-0 in a baseball game.
    - mod 12y ago
      What I think you're saying is "everything that's wrong with poker" is exactly what I find makes poker great. So much incomplete information combined with luck obscures the best strategy. If it weren't for these traits, it's likely poker would have been relegated to the likes of checkers by now. Solved and not fun for competent players. The luck keeps people coming back. Anyway, I can't agree with what you're saying, which is really just an opinion.
      - MichaelGG 12y ago
        Go does not have any luck, but it's an incredibly elegant and deep game with basically 3 rules. Computers still don't win against the top pros. (But that'll probably change over the next 5-10 years.) So you don't need luck to make it an attractive spectator sport. But I suppose it might be very different from poker if there wasn't luck involved.
      - TimPC 12y ago
        Mostly I mean that people think it's absolutely unbelievable that 70-30 gets beat and whine like it was an actual rout when it happens, then tell stories about it for years.
benihana 12y ago
AQ, AJ and A10 are all deceptively okay hands (not exceptional like AA, AK, KK, not quite mediocre like J10, QJ) because of the Ace.
- mod 12y ago
  You might be surprised to hear that 95% of poker players do not consider JT mediocre. (I'm not among the 95%!)
  - thret 12y ago
    In Australia we call JTss the 'Greek flag'. It is a very powerful hand in the Manila variant of poker - which is popular with Greeks - and thus extremely popular in holdem also. Note that every two card straight it makes is the nuts.
    - mod 12y ago
      Note that it's rarely worth playing in a raised NLHE pot. I know it's good when it's good, but it can be easy to read, it splits a lot of the pots because the board goes four paint or whatever, it gets tricked into dumping money with top pair no kicker, etc. Plenty of guys are flatting two raises OOP and hoping to hit a flop and that's a recipe for dumping chips. It's a great hand to play anytime 76s would be a great hand.

davis_m 12y ago

AQ vs KK is no different than A10 or AJ vs KK. Even middling Aces like A7 or A8 aren't much worse off because of the lost straight possibilities due to two K's being taken. I haven't looked at the numbers but I would bet that A2-A5 are better off against KK than AQ.

GCA10 12y ago
The numbers have arrived -- thanks to www.sliceeq.com -- and your hunch is right. After 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, Slice declares that winning odds are as follows KK (70.9%) vs AQsuited or AQoffsuit (29.1%) KK (69.2%) vs A5suited or A5offsuit (30.8%) The reason why the seemingly inferior hand of A5 does better is that it has about a 4.6% chance of making a straight. (Usually A2345, but conceivably something else) The AQ hand has only about a 2.7% chance of making a straight, because the deck is depleted of Kings, making the desired AKQJT straight hard to catch. In general, Slice is a wonderful -- and free -- tool for testing various hand outcomes, particularly against likely ranges that an opponent might have. NOTE: The simulation percentages above will vary slightly each time Slice goes hunting for 100,000 random hands. But the disparity between AQ and A5 generally is somewhere between 1.5 and 2 percentage points.
- cleatsupkeep 12y ago
  Additionally, if AQ has made a straight with a K, KK now has a redraw to a full house. If the flop was KJT, KK still has a 34% chance to win the hand.

Devthrowaway80 12y ago

Yup, it's a classic poker situation referred to as a "race". Interesting visualization!

mod 12y ago
AQ v KK is not a race, it's a rout.
- ssharp 12y ago
  Right. AQ vs. JJ would be a race.
- Devthrowaway80 12y ago
  Right you are, my mistake.
- TimPC 12y ago
  Everything that's wrong with poker as a game can be exhibited in the fact that 70-30 is considered a rout. It's slightly better than 2 to 1, you lose almost 1/3rd of the time. AQ vs KK preflop is roughly like leading 1-0 in a baseball game.
  - mod 12y ago
    What I think you're saying is "everything that's wrong with poker" is exactly what I find makes poker great. So much incomplete information combined with luck obscures the best strategy. If it weren't for these traits, it's likely poker would have been relegated to the likes of checkers by now. Solved and not fun for competent players. The luck keeps people coming back. Anyway, I can't agree with what you're saying, which is really just an opinion.
    - MichaelGG 12y ago
      Go does not have any luck, but it's an incredibly elegant and deep game with basically 3 rules. Computers still don't win against the top pros. (But that'll probably change over the next 5-10 years.) So you don't need luck to make it an attractive spectator sport. But I suppose it might be very different from poker if there wasn't luck involved.
    - TimPC 12y ago
      Mostly I mean that people think it's absolutely unbelievable that 70-30 gets beat and whine like it was an actual rout when it happens, then tell stories about it for years.

benihana 12y ago

AQ, AJ and A10 are all deceptively okay hands (not exceptional like AA, AK, KK, not quite mediocre like J10, QJ) because of the Ace.

mod 12y ago
You might be surprised to hear that 95% of poker players do not consider JT mediocre. (I'm not among the 95%!)
- thret 12y ago
  In Australia we call JTss the 'Greek flag'. It is a very powerful hand in the Manila variant of poker - which is popular with Greeks - and thus extremely popular in holdem also. Note that every two card straight it makes is the nuts.
  - mod 12y ago
    Note that it's rarely worth playing in a raised NLHE pot. I know it's good when it's good, but it can be easy to read, it splits a lot of the pots because the board goes four paint or whatever, it gets tricked into dumping money with top pair no kicker, etc. Plenty of guys are flatting two raises OOP and hoping to hit a flop and that's a recipe for dumping chips. It's a great hand to play anytime 76s would be a great hand.